TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Varchenko vs Pavlo Ostrovskyi 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191131210––––
Pavlo Ostrovskyi
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–5Last 9Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:56 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Varchenko to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Varchenko above · Pavlo Ostrovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 56 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Volodymyr Varchenko at 55.8%
56 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Varchenko 1–0 Pavlo Ostrovskyi Pavlo Ostrovskyi has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:5655.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Varchenko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Varchenko 1207 vs Ostrovskyi 1190
Varchenko
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varchenko 60% vs Ostrovskyi 40%
Varchenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varchenko 70% vs Ostrovskyi 44%
Varchenko
Correct
26pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varchenko -1 · Ostrovskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Varchenko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarchenko 1.666 / Ostrovskyi 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Varchenko)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13234740
Varchenko1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 27)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite44% won 21 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it67% 10 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it63% 19 of 30
Ostrovskyi2.10
44%won 4 of 9 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
33%takes the first set · 3 of 9
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeVarchenko1wins
AwayOstrovskyi0wins
Varchenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricVarchenkoOstrovskyiV − OBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match38.034.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarchenkoOstrovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 229 vs 4 / 946.3%44.4%106 / 229 vs 4 / 9Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VarchenkoVarchenko 1.67/Ostrovskyi 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Varchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Varchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 27 · 12:10V. Varchenko3811115113P. Ostrovskyi34781181
V. Varchenko10
WOct 3 · 06:35V. Varchenko1.221112133V. Mykhalchenko4.00910110LSep 27 · 16:40V. Varchenko1.671111131062V. Kucheriavyi2.10871512113WSep 27 · 15:10V. Varchenko1.83471111143O. Miklukha1.83111167122WSep 27 · 13:40V. Varchenko1.5311911113S. Osipov2.38311841WSep 27 · 12:10V. Varchenko2.0011115113P. Ostrovskyi1.73781181LSep 27 · 10:40V. Varchenko2.635560V. Kondratenko1.441111113WSep 22 · 17:10V. Varchenko2.101111113D. Khavanskyi1.677350WSep 22 · 15:10S. Semenets1.508880V. Varchenko2.501111113WSep 22 · 14:10V. Varchenko1.67147119113S. Osipov2.10121181172LSep 22 · 13:10V. Stukalov2.101112113V. Varchenko1.6761090
P. Ostrovskyi9
LOct 2 · 12:05S. Semenets1.83521111113P. Ostrovskyi1.8311119562WOct 2 · 10:35P. Ostrovskyi1.80718118113M. Khalenko1.91111681182LOct 2 · 08:35S. Skhabitskiy1.831811113P. Ostrovskyi1.8316380LOct 2 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.91116129113P. Ostrovskyi1.80711101162WOct 2 · 05:35V. Stukalov1.836740P. Ostrovskyi1.831111113LSep 27 · 17:40S. Osipov2.001211113P. Ostrovskyi1.7310570WSep 27 · 16:10P. Ostrovskyi2.10971112113V. Kondratenko1.67111151072WSep 27 · 14:10O. Miklukha1.83791131P. Ostrovskyi1.8311118113LSep 27 · 12:10V. Varchenko2.0011115113P. Ostrovskyi1.73781181
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