TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Semenets vs Pavlo Ostrovskyi 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511211119115116
Pavlo Ostrovskyi
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–4Last 8Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:59 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavlo Ostrovskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Semenets above · Pavlo Ostrovskyi below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 82 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Pavlo Ostrovskyi at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Semenets 1–0 Pavlo Ostrovskyi Pavlo Ostrovskyi has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5954.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Ostrovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Semenets 1224 vs Ostrovskyi 1190
Semenets
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semenets 0% vs Ostrovskyi 40%
Ostrovskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semenets 20% vs Ostrovskyi 50%
Ostrovskyi
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Semenets -8 · Ostrovskyi +1
Semenets
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Ostrovskyi) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ostrovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemenets 1.833 / Ostrovskyi 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Ostrovskyi)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13230213
Semenets1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 8
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Ostrovskyi1.83
50%won 4 of 8 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
25%takes the first set · 2 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSemenets1wins
AwayOstrovskyi0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderSemenets leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSemenetsOstrovskyiS − OBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match40.042.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemenetsOstrovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime421 / 844 vs 4 / 949.9%44.4%421 / 844 vs 4 / 9Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
OstrovskyiSemenets 1.83/Ostrovskyi 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Ostrovskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Semenets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WOct 2 · 12:05S. Semenets40521111113P. Ostrovskyi4211119562
S. Semenets10
LOct 2 · 10:05V. Stukalov1.91111187113S. Semenets1.8054111152LOct 2 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.501111127113S. Semenets2.50813101132LOct 2 · 07:05S. Semenets2.38114681M. Khalenko1.5391111113LOct 2 · 06:05S. Skhabitskiy1.401611113S. Semenets2.7514360LSep 30 · 12:05V. Kondratenko1.6111112113S. Semenets2.20851161LSep 30 · 10:35S. Semenets1.737111091S. Hovorunets2.0011512113LSep 30 · 08:35V. Stukalov2.0013118113S. Semenets1.731161151LSep 30 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.531111113S. Semenets2.388380WSep 30 · 05:35O. Miklukha2.386980S. Semenets1.531111113WSep 29 · 17:40S. Hovorunets2.00119781S. Semenets1.7351111113
P. Ostrovskyi8
WOct 2 · 10:35P. Ostrovskyi1.80718118113M. Khalenko1.91111681182LOct 2 · 08:35S. Skhabitskiy1.831811113P. Ostrovskyi1.8316380LOct 2 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.91116129113P. Ostrovskyi1.80711101162WOct 2 · 05:35V. Stukalov1.836740P. Ostrovskyi1.831111113LSep 27 · 17:40S. Osipov2.001211113P. Ostrovskyi1.7310570WSep 27 · 16:10P. Ostrovskyi2.10971112113V. Kondratenko1.67111151072WSep 27 · 14:10O. Miklukha1.83791131P. Ostrovskyi1.8311118113LSep 27 · 12:10V. Varchenko2.0011115113P. Ostrovskyi1.73781181
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