TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vladyslav Stukalov vs Pavlo Ostrovskyi 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611711411––––
Pavlo Ostrovskyi
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–2Last 4Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:33 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladyslav Stukalov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVladyslav Stukalov above · Pavlo Ostrovskyi below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 50 set 3, 4-11 · our read held Vladyslav Stukalov at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Vladyslav Stukalov 0–1 Pavlo Ostrovskyi Vladyslav Stukalov has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:3354.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Ostrovskyi
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stukalov 1152 vs Ostrovskyi 1269
Ostrovskyi
Correct
both rated, 117 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stukalov 60% vs Ostrovskyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stukalov 40% vs Ostrovskyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stukalov -2 · Ostrovskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Stukalov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStukalov 1.833 / Ostrovskyi 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stukalov)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13230230
Stukalov1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 30)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Ostrovskyi1.83
50%won 2 of 4 · last 10
Last match: 5 days ago (Sep 27)
oldest → newest
25%takes the first set · 1 of 4
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeStukalov0wins
AwayOstrovskyi1wins
Ostrovskyi leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricStukalovOstrovskyiS − OBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match17.033.0−16.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStukalovOstrovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime421 / 849 vs 3 / 549.6%60%421 / 849 vs 3 / 5Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.336.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StukalovStukalov 1.83/Ostrovskyi 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stukalov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ostrovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LOct 2 · 05:35V. Stukalov176740P. Ostrovskyi331111113
V. Stukalov10
LSep 30 · 11:35V. Stukalov3.0077111132S. Hovorunets1.36111198113LSep 30 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113V. Stukalov4.338840WSep 30 · 08:35V. Stukalov2.0013118113S. Semenets1.731161151WSep 30 · 07:35O. Miklukha2.254540V. Stukalov1.571111113WSep 30 · 06:05V. Stukalov2.2511711113V. Kondratenko1.57711651WSep 29 · 17:10V. Stukalov1.501161311113O. Miklukha2.50711111372LSep 29 · 15:10V. Mukhin1.221111113V. Stukalov4.001750LSep 29 · 14:10V. Stukalov1.91119231S. Semenets1.8091111113LSep 29 · 13:10V. Kondratenko1.731112113V. Stukalov2.0071080LSep 29 · 11:40V. Stukalov2.631990S. Hovorunets1.441111113
P. Ostrovskyi4
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