TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Igor Dabrowski vs Marcin Marchlewski 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118411511611––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:53 and never touched: 79.0% is still 79.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Marchlewski to win
79.0%
79.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIgor Dabrowski above · Marcin Marchlewski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 67 set 4, 6-11 · our read held Marcin Marchlewski at 79.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Igor Dabrowski 1–6 Marcin Marchlewski Igor Dabrowski has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5379.0%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 1.0pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Marchlewski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Marchlewski
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dabrowski 1399 vs Marchlewski 1585
Marchlewski
Correct
both rated, 186 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dabrowski 60% vs Marchlewski 80%
Marchlewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dabrowski 30% vs Marchlewski 60%
Marchlewski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dabrowski +1 · Marchlewski +3
Marchlewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% · Strong (leans Marchlewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dabrowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDabrowski 3.75 / Marchlewski 1.25
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Marchlewski)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232525
Dabrowski3.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 111 of 275
Down 0–1, comes back21% 33 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 78
Marchlewski1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 86 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it82% 67 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeDabrowski1wins
AwayMarchlewski6wins
Marchlewski leads 6–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDabrowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMarchlewski100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dabrowski2Marchlewski5n = 7Marchlewski took 5 of 7
S2Dabrowski1Marchlewski6n = 7Marchlewski took 6 of 7
S3Dabrowski2Marchlewski5n = 7Marchlewski took 5 of 7
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away457%
These 7 meetings
MetricDabrowskiMarchlewskiD − MBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match25.733.1−7.4per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDabrowskiMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime784 / 1557 vs 452 / 93350.4%48.5%784 / 1557 vs 452 / 933Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MarchlewskiDabrowski 3.75/Marchlewski 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79%
Marchlewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LOct 3 · 06:55I. Dabrowski26114561M. Marchlewski4181111113
LJun 6 · 04:15I. Dabrowski183780M. Marchlewski331111113
LFeb 1 · 04:05I. Dabrowski2881190M. Marchlewski351113113
LJul 27 · 10:40I. Dabrowski357101171M. Marchlewski3811124113
LJul 5 · 12:45I. Dabrowski218850M. Marchlewski331111113
LJun 14 · 14:00I. Dabrowski1941050M. Marchlewski341112113
WMay 10 · 12:45I. Dabrowski331111113M. Marchlewski185490
I. Dabrowski10
WOct 3 · 05:40I. Dabrowski1.91611911113M. Misiak1.8011611762LOct 3 · 04:10I. Dabrowski1.919880K. Kufel1.801111113WOct 3 · 03:00I. Dabrowski2.2511119113A. Linek1.57871171WSep 26 · 13:50I. Dabrowski1.7531111113B. Mleczko1.95118981LSep 26 · 12:35I. Dabrowski3.5097100T. Filbrandt1.291111123LSep 26 · 11:20I. Dabrowski1.7011111672T. Piotrowski2.00711511113LSep 26 · 10:05D. Kosmal1.251111113I. Dabrowski3.409670LSep 26 · 09:20I. Dabrowski2.70311681A. Wos1.4111711113LSep 26 · 08:30I. Dabrowski2.1011118572B. Mleczko1.60981111113LSep 26 · 06:50I. Dabrowski3.4588100D. Kosmal1.251111123
M. Marchlewski10
LOct 3 · 07:45K. Kufel2.1010111011113M. Marchlewski1.6712812822WOct 3 · 06:05M. Marchlewski1.807111111113B. Mleczko1.9111441362WOct 3 · 04:30M. Marchlewski1.4011118113A. Linek2.75961181WOct 3 · 03:45M. Misiak2.10812661M. Marchlewski1.67111011113LSep 12 · 23:20T. Filbrandt1.9161111113M. Marchlewski1.80118581WSep 12 · 22:35D. Jadam1.803990M. Marchlewski1.911111113LSep 12 · 22:10M. Marchlewski2.633640F. Mlynarski1.441111113WSep 12 · 21:00P. Jendrzejewski1.53811971M. Marchlewski2.3811311113LSep 12 · 20:30M. Marchlewski1.737570T. Filbrandt2.001111113WSep 12 · 18:50M. Marchlewski2.381111510123P. Jendrzejewski1.53971112102
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