TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Igor Dabrowski vs Karol Kufel 0-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811811––––
Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:04 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeKarol Kufel to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Karol Kufel @ 1.80 · Won
How it is goingIgor Dabrowski above · Karol Kufel below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 58 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Karol Kufel at 54.3%
58 points played in total.
H2H Igor Dabrowski 2–0 Karol Kufel Karol Kufel has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 03:0454.3%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.3pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kufel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dabrowski 1405 vs Kufel 1544
Kufel
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dabrowski 40% vs Kufel 100%
Kufel
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dabrowski 40% vs Kufel 100%
Kufel
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dabrowski +2 · Kufel +10
Kufel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kufel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kufel form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDabrowski 1.909 / Kufel 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kufel)-1.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232804
Dabrowski1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 110 of 273
Down 0–1, comes back21% 33 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 77
Kufel1.80
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 10
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 10 of 14
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeDabrowski2wins
AwayKufel0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderDabrowski leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricDabrowskiKufelD − KBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match44.538.0+6.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDabrowskiKufelBasisWin rate · lifetime786 / 1559 vs 30 / 4650.4%65.2%786 / 1559 vs 30 / 46Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KufelDabrowski 1.91/Kufel 1.80
Hit
What we said
54.3%
Kufel · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Karol Kufel @ 1.80 · Won
What happened
0–3
Kufel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 20 · 11:45I. Dabrowski541111611153K. Kufel54138119132
WSep 20 · 06:50I. Dabrowski351113113K. Kufel2261150
I. Dabrowski10
WOct 3 · 03:00I. Dabrowski2.2511119113A. Linek1.57871171WSep 26 · 13:50I. Dabrowski1.7531111113B. Mleczko1.95118981LSep 26 · 12:35I. Dabrowski3.5097100T. Filbrandt1.291111123LSep 26 · 11:20I. Dabrowski1.7011111672T. Piotrowski2.00711511113LSep 26 · 10:05D. Kosmal1.251111113I. Dabrowski3.409670LSep 26 · 09:20I. Dabrowski2.70311681A. Wos1.4111711113LSep 26 · 08:30I. Dabrowski2.1011118572B. Mleczko1.60981111113LSep 26 · 06:50I. Dabrowski3.4588100D. Kosmal1.251111123WSep 26 · 05:35I. Dabrowski1.75131249113J. Wozniak1.901110111192WSep 26 · 04:00I. Dabrowski2.2511611113J. Zochniak1.58811931
K. Kufel10
WOct 3 · 03:25K. Kufel1.5313144113B. Mleczko2.3811121191WOct 2 · 14:40F. Krcil2.007430K. Kufel1.721111113WOct 2 · 13:30K. Kufel1.701113113B. Czerwinski2.0561190WOct 2 · 12:15J. Przewlocki1.8611810101K. Kufel1.8561112123WOct 2 · 11:00J. Zochniak1.4781511782K. Kufel2.401113911113WOct 2 · 09:25B. Warpas2.2010970K. Kufel1.581211113WOct 2 · 08:10K. Kufel1.491011311113M. Lukaszewski2.4512711662WOct 2 · 06:30R. Stapor1.77413101382K. Kufel1.9511111211113WOct 2 · 05:40B. Warpas1.95121080K. Kufel1.751412113WOct 2 · 04:55K. Kufel1.605111111113J. Przewlocki2.1511661382
Upcoming Matches
I. Dabrowski
Oct 3 · 05:40I. Dabrowski1.91M. Misiak1.80—Oct 3 · 06:55I. Dabrowski3.75M. Marchlewski1.25—Oct 3 · 08:30I. Dabrowski2.10B. Mleczko1.67—Oct 3 · 09:20I. Dabrowski1.91M. Misiak1.80—Oct 3 · 10:00I. Dabrowski3.75M. Marchlewski1.25—Oct 3 · 11:15I. Dabrowski2.38A. Linek1.53—Oct 3 · 12:30I. Dabrowski1.73A. Myszewski2.00—Oct 3 · 13:45I. Dabrowski2.10B. Mleczko1.67—
K. Kufel
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