TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Karol Kufel vs Bartlomiej Mleczko 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13111412411119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:24 and never touched: 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeKarol Kufel to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKarol Kufel above · Bartlomiej Mleczko below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 10-8
Point 83 set 4, 10-8 · our read held Karol Kufel at 63.6%
83 points drawn · the score is 2 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Karol Kufel 2–0 Bartlomiej Mleczko Bartlomiej Mleczko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:2463.6%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 1.6pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kufel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kufel 1535 vs Mleczko 1410
Kufel
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kufel 100% vs Mleczko 40%
Kufel
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kufel 90% vs Mleczko 40%
Kufel
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kufel +9 · Mleczko +1
Kufel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% · Clear lean (leans Kufel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kufel form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKufel 1.533 / Mleczko 2.375
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Kufel)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232751
Kufel1.53
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 9
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 10 of 14
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Mleczko2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 27)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 56 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back27% 22 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKufel2wins
AwayMleczko0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderKufel leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKufelMleczkoK − MBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match40.030.0+10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKufelMleczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime29 / 45 vs 417 / 80564.4%51.8%29 / 45 vs 417 / 805Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KufelKufel 1.53/Mleczko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Kufel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kufel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 27 · 12:10K. Kufel461011113113B. Mleczko4112841162
WSep 27 · 04:00K. Kufel341111123B. Mleczko1963100
K. Kufel10
WOct 3 · 04:10I. Dabrowski1.919880K. Kufel1.801111113WOct 2 · 14:40F. Krcil2.007430K. Kufel1.721111113WOct 2 · 13:30K. Kufel1.701113113B. Czerwinski2.0561190WOct 2 · 12:15J. Przewlocki1.8611810101K. Kufel1.8561112123WOct 2 · 11:00J. Zochniak1.4781511782K. Kufel2.401113911113WOct 2 · 09:25B. Warpas2.2010970K. Kufel1.581211113WOct 2 · 08:10K. Kufel1.491011311113M. Lukaszewski2.4512711662WOct 2 · 06:30R. Stapor1.77413101382K. Kufel1.9511111211113WOct 2 · 05:40B. Warpas1.95121080K. Kufel1.751412113WOct 2 · 04:55K. Kufel1.605111111113J. Przewlocki2.1511661382
B. Mleczko10
WSep 27 · 13:50D. Poloszczanski2.4813661162B. Mleczko1.481111118113LSep 27 · 13:00A. Wos1.341111113B. Mleczko3.007260LSep 27 · 12:10B. Mleczko1.9812841162K. Kufel1.731011113113LSep 27 · 10:30B. Mleczko1.80881281D. Wasilewski1.91111110113WSep 27 · 09:45G. Kesik1.8081611572B. Mleczko1.851114811113WSep 27 · 08:30B. Mleczko1.4791111113T. Pisarczyk2.45118841LSep 27 · 06:50B. Mleczko2.47121150A. Wos1.491413113WSep 27 · 05:35B. Mleczko1.90121112113D. Wasilewski1.801071461LSep 27 · 04:00B. Mleczko1.9063100K. Kufel1.751111123LSep 27 · 03:00B. Mleczko2.0571111562G. Kesik1.65116711113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kufel
B. Mleczko
Oct 3 · 04:55B. Mleczko1.83M. Misiak1.83—Oct 3 · 06:05B. Mleczko1.91M. Marchlewski1.80—Oct 3 · 07:20B. Mleczko2.00A. Linek1.73—Oct 3 · 08:30B. Mleczko1.67I. Dabrowski2.10—Oct 3 · 09:40B. Mleczko1.67A. Myszewski2.10—Oct 3 · 10:25B. Mleczko2.00A. Linek1.73—Oct 3 · 12:05B. Mleczko1.83M. Misiak1.83—Oct 3 · 12:55B. Mleczko2.10M. Marchlewski1.67—Oct 3 · 13:45B. Mleczko1.67I. Dabrowski2.10—
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