TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Igor Dabrowski vs Adam Linek 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118117911117––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:54 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeAdam Linek to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIgor Dabrowski above · Adam Linek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 75 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Adam Linek at 59.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Igor Dabrowski 25–23 Adam Linek Adam Linek has won 23 of their 48 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:5459.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Linek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
25-23 in 48
Dabrowski
Correct
gap of 2 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dabrowski 1392 vs Linek 1425
Linek
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dabrowski 20% vs Linek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dabrowski 40% vs Linek 20%
Dabrowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dabrowski +1 · Linek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Linek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Linek form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDabrowski 2.25 / Linek 1.571
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Linek)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232726
Dabrowski2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 26) · back after a break
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 110 of 273
Down 0–1, comes back21% 33 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 77
Linek1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 02)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 103 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it86% 38 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it72% 75 of 104
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDabrowski5wins
AwayLinek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDabrowski57.1%4 of 7
AwayLinek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dabrowski7Linek3n = 10Dabrowski took 7 of 10
S2Dabrowski4Linek6n = 10Linek took 6 of 10
S3Dabrowski5Linek5n = 10split evenly
S4Dabrowski3Linek5n = 8Linek took 5 of 8
S5Dabrowski3Linek2n = 5Dabrowski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDabrowskiLinekD − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.140.3−1.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDabrowskiLinekBasisWin rate · lifetime795 / 1579 vs 758 / 162750.4%46.6%795 / 1579 vs 758 / 1627Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
LinekDabrowski 2.25/Linek 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Linek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dabrowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 12:35I. Dabrowski40114113113A. Linek4781191182
LAug 15 · 08:30I. Dabrowski44611111152A. Linek47111357113
LJul 18 · 11:45I. Dabrowski34117971A. Linek4181111113
LMay 21 · 09:25I. Dabrowski391112791A. Linek4481411113
LMay 8 · 13:55I. Dabrowski31612671A. Linek43111011113
WMay 8 · 08:35I. Dabrowski49711611143A. Linek48119115122
WMay 7 · 13:55I. Dabrowski331111113A. Linek258890
WMay 7 · 08:35I. Dabrowski47115119113A. Linek4061181142
WApr 24 · 13:05I. Dabrowski331111113A. Linek237790
LApr 16 · 04:30I. Dabrowski4111861152A. Linek45611116113
I. Dabrowski10
WSep 26 · 13:50I. Dabrowski1.7531111113B. Mleczko1.95118981LSep 26 · 12:35I. Dabrowski3.5097100T. Filbrandt1.291111123LSep 26 · 11:20I. Dabrowski1.7011111672T. Piotrowski2.00711511113LSep 26 · 10:05D. Kosmal1.251111113I. Dabrowski3.409670LSep 26 · 09:20I. Dabrowski2.70311681A. Wos1.4111711113LSep 26 · 08:30I. Dabrowski2.1011118572B. Mleczko1.60981111113LSep 26 · 06:50I. Dabrowski3.4588100D. Kosmal1.251111123WSep 26 · 05:35I. Dabrowski1.75131249113J. Wozniak1.901110111192WSep 26 · 04:00I. Dabrowski2.2511611113J. Zochniak1.58811931WSep 26 · 03:00I. Dabrowski2.05811117113T. Piotrowski1.6811951162
A. Linek10
LOct 2 · 00:35B. Sulkowski1.9111911123A. Linek1.808117101WOct 1 · 22:55J. Glanowski2.0091090A. Linek1.731112113LOct 1 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.4461111113A. Linek2.63116581LOct 1 · 21:25D. Solilo1.6771112113A. Linek2.101161071LOct 1 · 19:40A. Linek2.638111081D. Kosmal1.4411512113LOct 1 · 18:30A. Linek1.61991312122J. Glanowski2.2011111110143WOct 1 · 17:20A. Linek1.5712115133A. Mugowski2.2510911111LOct 1 · 16:05K. Staszczyk1.40111110113A. Linek2.75641241LOct 1 · 15:25A. Linek2.381091181D. Solilo1.5312118113LSep 29 · 19:40A. Linek1.80515761J. Krawczyk1.91111311113
Upcoming Matches
I. Dabrowski
Oct 3 · 04:10I. Dabrowski1.91K. Kufel1.80—Oct 3 · 05:40I. Dabrowski1.91M. Misiak1.80—Oct 3 · 06:55I. Dabrowski3.75M. Marchlewski1.25—Oct 3 · 08:30I. Dabrowski2.10B. Mleczko1.67—Oct 3 · 09:20I. Dabrowski1.91M. Misiak1.80—Oct 3 · 10:00I. Dabrowski3.75M. Marchlewski1.25—Oct 3 · 11:15I. Dabrowski2.25A. Linek1.57—Oct 3 · 12:30I. Dabrowski1.73A. Myszewski2.00—Oct 3 · 13:45I. Dabrowski2.10B. Mleczko1.67—
A. Linek
Oct 3 · 04:30A. Linek2.75M. Marchlewski1.40—Oct 3 · 05:15A. Linek2.00K. Kufel1.73—Oct 3 · 07:20A. Linek1.73B. Mleczko2.00—Oct 3 · 08:05A. Linek1.83M. Misiak1.83—Oct 3 · 09:00A. Linek2.75M. Marchlewski1.40—Oct 3 · 10:25A. Linek1.73B. Mleczko2.00—Oct 3 · 11:15A. Linek1.57I. Dabrowski2.25—Oct 3 · 13:20A. Linek1.83M. Misiak1.83—Oct 3 · 14:10A. Linek1.73A. Myszewski2.00—
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