TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Bartosz Sulkowski vs Adam Linek 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1189111171210––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:21 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBartosz Sulkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingBartosz Sulkowski above · Adam Linek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 79 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Bartosz Sulkowski at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Bartosz Sulkowski 20–18 Adam Linek Adam Linek has won 18 of their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:2154.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Linek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-18 in 38
Sulkowski
Correct
gap of 2 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1488 vs Linek 1443
Sulkowski
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 20% vs Linek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 30% vs Linek 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski +1 · Linek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sulkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Linek form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 1.909 / Linek 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sulkowski)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13222867
Sulkowski1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog33% won 159 of 476
Down 0–1, comes back18% 50 of 281
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 136
Linek1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 101 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it86% 36 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it72% 73 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski5wins
AwayLinek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowski66.7%2 of 3
AwayLinek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski3Linek7n = 10Linek took 7 of 10
S2Sulkowski7Linek3n = 10Sulkowski took 7 of 10
S3Sulkowski3Linek7n = 10Linek took 7 of 10
S4Sulkowski6Linek3n = 9Sulkowski took 6 of 9
S5Sulkowski2Linek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiLinekS − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.641.0+1.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiLinekBasisWin rate · lifetime598 / 1337 vs 758 / 162644.7%46.6%598 / 1337 vs 758 / 1626Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SulkowskiSulkowski 1.91/Linek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sulkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 04:25B. Sulkowski48811712102A. Linek501161110123
WSep 10 · 12:40B. Sulkowski3711411113A. Linek31711581
LSep 10 · 07:40B. Sulkowski4881181292A. Linek501171110113
WSep 7 · 00:35B. Sulkowski44111111113A. Linek33136681
LAug 25 · 04:55B. Sulkowski381110891A. Linek4281211113
LAug 23 · 23:20B. Sulkowski235990A. Linek331111113
WAug 23 · 20:30B. Sulkowski53611912153A. Linek481131110132
WAug 22 · 21:55B. Sulkowski45111310113A. Linek346111251
WAug 14 · 13:30B. Sulkowski5411111110113A. Linek4713991242
LAug 9 · 00:35B. Sulkowski361111951A. Linek4213711113
B. Sulkowski10
WOct 1 · 23:45J. Glanowski1.801191191B. Sulkowski1.9191113113LOct 1 · 22:35B. Sulkowski2.75101090K. Staszczyk1.401212113LOct 1 · 21:50D. Solilo1.50117113143B. Sulkowski2.50511411122LOct 1 · 00:10D. Solilo1.5713511113B. Sulkowski2.251111771LSep 30 · 23:45B. Sulkowski2.637230K. Staszczyk1.441111113LSep 30 · 22:55B. Sulkowski2.207780P. Blocho1.611111113LSep 30 · 21:00B. Sulkowski1.916590K. Rudomina1.801111113WSep 30 · 20:05P. Blocho1.6781111572B. Sulkowski2.10112911113WSep 30 · 19:15K. Rudomina2.008121361B. Sulkowski1.73111411113LSep 30 · 17:20K. Staszczyk1.44141111113B. Sulkowski2.63166641
A. Linek10
WOct 1 · 22:55J. Glanowski2.0091090A. Linek1.731112113LOct 1 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.4461111113A. Linek2.63116581LOct 1 · 21:25D. Solilo1.6771112113A. Linek2.101161071LOct 1 · 19:40A. Linek2.638111081D. Kosmal1.4411512113LOct 1 · 18:30A. Linek1.61991312122J. Glanowski2.2011111110143WOct 1 · 17:20A. Linek1.5712115133A. Mugowski2.2510911111LOct 1 · 16:05K. Staszczyk1.40111110113A. Linek2.75641241LOct 1 · 15:25A. Linek2.381091181D. Solilo1.5312118113LSep 29 · 19:40A. Linek1.80515761J. Krawczyk1.91111311113LSep 29 · 18:30A. Linek3.756430J. Mitas1.251111113
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