TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Dominik Solilo vs Bartosz Sulkowski 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311511117117––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 00:00 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeDominik Solilo to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingDominik Solilo above · Bartosz Sulkowski below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 76 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Dominik Solilo at 59.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Solilo 12–12 Bartosz Sulkowski Dead even across their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Solilo beat Sulkowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 00:0059.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Solilo
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-12 in 24
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Solilo 1579 vs Sulkowski 1501
Solilo
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Solilo 40% vs Sulkowski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Solilo 50% vs Sulkowski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Solilo -3 · Sulkowski -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Solilo) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Solilo form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSolilo 1.571 / Sulkowski 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Solilo)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13221651
Solilo1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 161 of 255
Up 2–0, closes it91% 83 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it78% 120 of 153
Sulkowski2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 159 of 472
Down 0–1, comes back18% 50 of 279
Down 0–2, comes back3% 4 of 135
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSolilo5wins
AwaySulkowski5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSolilo75%3 of 4
AwaySulkowski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Solilo4Sulkowski6n = 10Sulkowski took 6 of 10
S2Solilo6Sulkowski4n = 10Solilo took 6 of 10
S3Solilo5Sulkowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Solilo3Sulkowski5n = 8Sulkowski took 5 of 8
S5Solilo2Sulkowski1n = 3Solilo took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSoliloSulkowskiSolilo − SulkowskiBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.538.5−2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSoliloSulkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime279 / 569 vs 597 / 133349%44.8%279 / 569 vs 597 / 1333Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SoliloSolilo 1.57/Sulkowski 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Solilo · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Solilo won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 30 · 15:00D. Solilo49911117113B. Sulkowski4511871182
LSep 24 · 21:25D. Solilo22451121B. Sulkowski4211119113
LSep 24 · 16:55D. Solilo27611551B. Sulkowski4011711113
LSep 23 · 15:00D. Solilo4211211992B. Sulkowski48711811113
WSep 22 · 11:25D. Solilo42451111113B. Sulkowski4711117992
WSep 16 · 21:00D. Solilo331111113B. Sulkowski194780
WSep 16 · 16:05D. Solilo4513119123B. Sulkowski4111911101
LSep 11 · 06:50D. Solilo2459100B. Sulkowski341111123
LSep 10 · 14:20D. Solilo401111991B. Sulkowski4213711113
WSep 9 · 07:40D. Solilo4111118113B. Sulkowski27851131
D. Solilo10
LSep 30 · 23:20D. Solilo1.737101191K. Rudomina2.0011129113LSep 30 · 21:50D. Solilo2.50711221K. Staszczyk1.5011911113LSep 30 · 21:25D. Solilo1.53911721P. Blocho2.3811811113WSep 30 · 20:30D. Solilo1.73711113113K. Rudomina2.0011981192WSep 30 · 18:50D. Solilo1.611111113J. Zochniak2.206990WSep 30 · 17:40D. Solilo1.5771111153P. Blocho2.251192131LSep 30 · 16:05D. Solilo2.5051111282K. Staszczyk1.50119911113WSep 30 · 15:00D. Solilo1.73911117113B. Sulkowski2.0011871182LSep 29 · 13:55A. Sobel1.80101111113D. Solilo1.91125141WSep 29 · 13:05M. Kolek1.6111961162D. Solilo2.15811119113
B. Sulkowski10
LSep 30 · 23:45B. Sulkowski2.637230K. Staszczyk1.441111113LSep 30 · 22:55B. Sulkowski2.207780P. Blocho1.611111113LSep 30 · 21:00B. Sulkowski1.916590K. Rudomina1.801111113WSep 30 · 20:05P. Blocho1.6781111572B. Sulkowski2.10112911113WSep 30 · 19:15K. Rudomina2.008121361B. Sulkowski1.73111411113LSep 30 · 17:20K. Staszczyk1.44141111113B. Sulkowski2.63166641LSep 30 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.1011119113B. Sulkowski1.67451131LSep 30 · 15:00D. Solilo1.73911117113B. Sulkowski2.0011871182WSep 25 · 21:00B. Sulkowski2.5011514113T. Filbrandt1.507111281WSep 25 · 19:40B. Sulkowski1.611112123R. Malinowski2.20810100
Upcoming Matches
D. Solilo
Oct 1 · 15:25D. Solilo—A. Linek——Oct 1 · 16:55D. Solilo—J. Glanowski——Oct 1 · 18:05D. Solilo—D. Kosmal——Oct 1 · 19:15D. Solilo—A. Mugowski——Oct 1 · 20:30D. Solilo—K. Staszczyk——Oct 1 · 21:25D. Solilo—A. Linek——Oct 1 · 21:50D. Solilo—B. Sulkowski——Oct 1 · 23:20D. Solilo—K. Staszczyk——Oct 2 · 00:10D. Solilo—J. Glanowski——
B. Sulkowski
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