TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Marcin Marchlewski vs Bartlomiej Mleczko 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111141141113116
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:53 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeMarcin Marchlewski to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Marcin Marchlewski @ 1.80 · Won
How it is goingMarcin Marchlewski above · Bartlomiej Mleczko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 89 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Marcin Marchlewski at 54.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Marchlewski 15–15 Bartlomiej Mleczko Dead even across their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 04:5354.3%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.3pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Marchlewski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
15-15 in 30
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marchlewski 1572 vs Mleczko 1412
Marchlewski
Correct
both rated, 160 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marchlewski 60% vs Mleczko 40%
Marchlewski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marchlewski 50% vs Mleczko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marchlewski +2 · Mleczko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Marchlewski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mleczko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarchlewski 1.80 / Mleczko 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Marchlewski)-1.3pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232475
Marchlewski1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 86 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it82% 67 of 82
Mleczko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 55 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back26% 22 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarchlewski5wins
AwayMleczko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarchlewski66.7%4 of 6
AwayMleczko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marchlewski6Mleczko4n = 10Marchlewski took 6 of 10
S2Marchlewski4Mleczko6n = 10Mleczko took 6 of 10
S3Marchlewski4Mleczko6n = 10Mleczko took 6 of 10
S4Marchlewski5Mleczko2n = 7Marchlewski took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarchlewskiMleczkoMarchlewski − MleczkoBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.837.5−0.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarchlewskiMleczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime450 / 931 vs 418 / 80748.3%51.8%450 / 931 vs 418 / 807Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MarchlewskiMarchlewski 1.80/Mleczko 1.91
Hit
What we said
54.3%
Marchlewski · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Marcin Marchlewski @ 1.80 · Won
What happened
3–2
Marchlewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 18 · 14:45M. Marchlewski341111123B. Mleczko2679100
LFeb 22 · 11:20M. Marchlewski4011111081B. Mleczko4591312113
LFeb 22 · 06:00M. Marchlewski228860B. Mleczko331111113
WFeb 7 · 10:05M. Marchlewski4511138133B. Mleczko4291111111
WJan 31 · 15:45M. Marchlewski4211119113B. Mleczko34771191
WJan 25 · 08:10M. Marchlewski3741111113B. Mleczko28115571
LOct 25 · 09:05M. Marchlewski182970B. Mleczko331111113
LOct 12 · 10:20M. Marchlewski429614131B. Mleczko49111112153
LSep 27 · 11:55M. Marchlewski4611691282B. Mleczko529111110113
WSep 21 · 13:10M. Marchlewski4211911113B. Mleczko33911581
M. Marchlewski10
WOct 3 · 06:55I. Dabrowski3.75114561M. Marchlewski1.2581111113WOct 3 · 04:30M. Marchlewski1.4011118113A. Linek2.75961181WOct 3 · 03:45M. Misiak2.10812661M. Marchlewski1.67111011113LSep 12 · 23:20T. Filbrandt1.9161111113M. Marchlewski1.80118581WSep 12 · 22:35D. Jadam1.803990M. Marchlewski1.911111113LSep 12 · 22:10M. Marchlewski2.633640F. Mlynarski1.441111113WSep 12 · 21:00P. Jendrzejewski1.53811971M. Marchlewski2.3811311113LSep 12 · 20:30M. Marchlewski1.737570T. Filbrandt2.001111113WSep 12 · 18:50M. Marchlewski2.381111510123P. Jendrzejewski1.53971112102LSep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski3.0011931172F. Mlynarski1.36711119113
B. Mleczko10
WOct 3 · 04:55M. Misiak1.83113541B. Mleczko1.8391111113LOct 3 · 03:25K. Kufel1.5313144113B. Mleczko2.3811121191WSep 27 · 13:50D. Poloszczanski2.4813661162B. Mleczko1.481111118113LSep 27 · 13:00A. Wos1.341111113B. Mleczko3.007260LSep 27 · 12:10B. Mleczko1.9812841162K. Kufel1.731011113113LSep 27 · 10:30B. Mleczko1.80881281D. Wasilewski1.91111110113WSep 27 · 09:45G. Kesik1.8081611572B. Mleczko1.851114811113WSep 27 · 08:30B. Mleczko1.4791111113T. Pisarczyk2.45118841LSep 27 · 06:50B. Mleczko2.47121150A. Wos1.491413113WSep 27 · 05:35B. Mleczko1.90121112113D. Wasilewski1.801071461
Upcoming Matches
M. Marchlewski
B. Mleczko
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.