TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Mateusz Misiak vs Bartlomiej Mleczko 1-3 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119311511411––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:46 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Mleczko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Misiak above · Bartlomiej Mleczko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 65 set 4, 4-11 · our read held Bartlomiej Mleczko at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Misiak 19–19 Bartlomiej Mleczko Dead even across their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:4654.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Mleczko
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-19 in 38
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Misiak 1343 vs Mleczko 1402
Mleczko
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Misiak 40% vs Mleczko 20%
Misiak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Misiak 60% vs Mleczko 40%
Misiak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Misiak -2 · Mleczko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Mleczko) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mleczko form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMisiak 1.833 / Mleczko 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mleczko)-0.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13232530
Misiak1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Mleczko1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMisiak5wins
AwayMleczko5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMisiak83.3%5 of 6
AwayMleczko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Misiak6Mleczko4n = 10Misiak took 6 of 10
S2Misiak5Mleczko5n = 10split evenly
S3Misiak6Mleczko4n = 10Misiak took 6 of 10
S4Misiak3Mleczko5n = 8Mleczko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMisiakMleczkoMisiak − MleczkoBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.837.80.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMisiakMleczkoBasisWin rate · lifetime987 / 1862 vs 417 / 80653%51.7%987 / 1862 vs 417 / 806Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MleczkoMisiak 1.83/Mleczko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mleczko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mleczko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 09:50M. Misiak45116411133B. Mleczko49911117112
LAug 22 · 22:15M. Misiak4210118131B. Mleczko4212411153
LAug 22 · 16:55M. Misiak31711671B. Mleczko4111811113
WJul 31 · 14:40M. Misiak4111811113B. Mleczko29611751
WMay 30 · 10:20M. Misiak331111113B. Mleczko247980
LMay 10 · 16:20M. Misiak31841181B. Mleczko4011117113
LApr 26 · 19:00M. Misiak4616611942B. Mleczko561411911113
LApr 12 · 15:30M. Misiak30711751B. Mleczko3911611113
WMar 29 · 19:00M. Misiak331111113B. Mleczko216960
WMar 21 · 14:25M. Misiak4611811163B. Mleczko373119141
M. Misiak10
LOct 3 · 06:30K. Kufel1.5711411113M. Misiak2.25411651LOct 3 · 05:40I. Dabrowski1.91611911113M. Misiak1.8011611762LOct 3 · 03:45M. Misiak2.10812661M. Marchlewski1.67111011113LSep 26 · 14:40B. Wisniewski2.25111115113M. Misiak1.557131391WSep 26 · 13:30M. Misiak1.3313128113J. Rolak3.1011101181WSep 26 · 12:15A. Szoltysek2.6081112662M. Misiak1.421151011113LSep 26 · 11:00K. Guminski2.1511811113M. Misiak1.60711991LSep 26 · 09:25J. Przewlocki2.4011711113M. Misiak1.47811981WSep 26 · 07:40M. Misiak1.5151113113B. Wisniewski2.401171181WSep 26 · 06:30M. Misiak1.3411411113J. Rolak3.00511841
B. Mleczko10
LOct 3 · 06:05M. Marchlewski1.807111111113B. Mleczko1.9111441362LOct 3 · 03:25K. Kufel1.5313144113B. Mleczko2.3811121191WSep 27 · 13:50D. Poloszczanski2.4813661162B. Mleczko1.481111118113LSep 27 · 13:00A. Wos1.341111113B. Mleczko3.007260LSep 27 · 12:10B. Mleczko1.9812841162K. Kufel1.731011113113LSep 27 · 10:30B. Mleczko1.80881281D. Wasilewski1.91111110113WSep 27 · 09:45G. Kesik1.8081611572B. Mleczko1.851114811113WSep 27 · 08:30B. Mleczko1.4791111113T. Pisarczyk2.45118841LSep 27 · 06:50B. Mleczko2.47121150A. Wos1.491413113WSep 27 · 05:35B. Mleczko1.90121112113D. Wasilewski1.801071461
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