TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Igor Dabrowski vs Mateusz Misiak 3-2 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611116911117116
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:32 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIgor Dabrowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIgor Dabrowski above · Mateusz Misiak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 89 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Igor Dabrowski at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Igor Dabrowski 11–17 Mateusz Misiak Igor Dabrowski has won 11 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:3254.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Misiak
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
11-17 in 28
Misiak
Wrong
gap of 6 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dabrowski 1396 vs Misiak 1332
Dabrowski
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dabrowski 40% vs Misiak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dabrowski 30% vs Misiak 50%
Misiak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dabrowski -1 · Misiak -3
Misiak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Dabrowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Misiak form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDabrowski 1.909 / Misiak 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dabrowski)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13232598
Dabrowski1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 111 of 275
Down 0–1, comes back21% 33 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 78
Misiak1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 173 of 286
Up 2–0, closes it96% 105 of 109
Up 1–0, closes it82% 144 of 175
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDabrowski3wins
AwayMisiak7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMisiak leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDabrowski25%1 of 4
AwayMisiak66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dabrowski4Misiak6n = 10Misiak took 6 of 10
S2Dabrowski5Misiak5n = 10split evenly
S3Dabrowski4Misiak6n = 10Misiak took 6 of 10
S4Dabrowski5Misiak4n = 9Dabrowski took 5 of 9
S5Dabrowski1Misiak4n = 5Misiak took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDabrowskiMisiakD − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.841.1+0.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDabrowskiMisiakBasisWin rate · lifetime785 / 1559 vs 987 / 186350.4%53%785 / 1559 vs 987 / 1863Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DabrowskiDabrowski 1.91/Misiak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dabrowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dabrowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 14:35I. Dabrowski4681181182M. Misiak44113118113
WSep 20 · 03:40I. Dabrowski4211119113M. Misiak32961161
LAug 28 · 10:10I. Dabrowski471210311112M. Misiak501012114133
WAug 28 · 05:40I. Dabrowski4391111123M. Misiak351168101
LAug 7 · 11:25I. Dabrowski51111111992M. Misiak44513411113
WJul 31 · 13:30I. Dabrowski46711125113M. Misiak44118101142
LJul 31 · 03:50I. Dabrowski206590M. Misiak331111113
LJun 21 · 12:35I. Dabrowski511110111182M. Misiak45512134113
LJun 21 · 03:00I. Dabrowski389117111M. Misiak4211711133
LJun 6 · 09:55I. Dabrowski34781181M. Misiak4211119113
I. Dabrowski10
LOct 3 · 04:10I. Dabrowski1.919880K. Kufel1.801111113WOct 3 · 03:00I. Dabrowski2.2511119113A. Linek1.57871171WSep 26 · 13:50I. Dabrowski1.7531111113B. Mleczko1.95118981LSep 26 · 12:35I. Dabrowski3.5097100T. Filbrandt1.291111123LSep 26 · 11:20I. Dabrowski1.7011111672T. Piotrowski2.00711511113LSep 26 · 10:05D. Kosmal1.251111113I. Dabrowski3.409670LSep 26 · 09:20I. Dabrowski2.70311681A. Wos1.4111711113LSep 26 · 08:30I. Dabrowski2.1011118572B. Mleczko1.60981111113LSep 26 · 06:50I. Dabrowski3.4588100D. Kosmal1.251111123WSep 26 · 05:35I. Dabrowski1.75131249113J. Wozniak1.901110111192
M. Misiak10
LOct 3 · 06:30K. Kufel1.5711411113M. Misiak2.25411651LOct 3 · 04:55M. Misiak1.83113541B. Mleczko1.8391111113LOct 3 · 03:45M. Misiak2.10812661M. Marchlewski1.67111011113LSep 26 · 14:40B. Wisniewski2.25111115113M. Misiak1.557131391WSep 26 · 13:30M. Misiak1.3313128113J. Rolak3.1011101181WSep 26 · 12:15A. Szoltysek2.6081112662M. Misiak1.421151011113LSep 26 · 11:00K. Guminski2.1511811113M. Misiak1.60711991LSep 26 · 09:25J. Przewlocki2.4011711113M. Misiak1.47811981WSep 26 · 07:40M. Misiak1.5151113113B. Wisniewski2.401171181WSep 26 · 06:30M. Misiak1.3411411113J. Rolak3.00511841
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