TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
Karol Kufel vs Mateusz Misiak 3-1 · TT Elite Series
TT Elite Series
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114411116115––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:27 and never touched: 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeKarol Kufel to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingKarol Kufel above · Mateusz Misiak below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 63 set 4, 11-5 · our read held Karol Kufel at 61.7%
63 points played in total.
H2H Karol Kufel 3–0 Mateusz Misiak Mateusz Misiak has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:2761.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 2.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kufel
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Kufel
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kufel 1544 vs Misiak 1317
Kufel
Correct
both rated, 227 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kufel 80% vs Misiak 20%
Kufel
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kufel 90% vs Misiak 40%
Kufel
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kufel -1 · Misiak -4
Misiak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Slight lean (leans Kufel) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Misiak form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKufel 1.571 / Misiak 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kufel)-2.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13232814
Kufel1.57
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite82% won 18 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Misiak2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 86 of 252
Down 0–1, comes back14% 19 of 141
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKufel3wins
AwayMisiak0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKufel leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kufel2Misiak1n = 3Kufel took 2 of 3
S2Kufel2Misiak1n = 3Kufel took 2 of 3
S3Kufel3Misiak0n = 3Kufel took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKufelMisiakK − MBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match40.733.7+7.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKufelMisiakBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 49 vs 987 / 186565.3%52.9%32 / 49 vs 987 / 1865Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KufelKufel 1.57/Misiak 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Kufel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kufel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WOct 3 · 06:30K. Kufel3711411113M. Misiak26411651
WSep 20 · 10:55K. Kufel341211113M. Misiak2410770
WSep 20 · 05:35K. Kufel51514119123M. Misiak511112711102
K. Kufel10
LOct 3 · 05:15K. Kufel1.7311119552A. Linek2.00581111113WOct 3 · 04:10I. Dabrowski1.919880K. Kufel1.801111113WOct 3 · 03:25K. Kufel1.5313144113B. Mleczko2.3811121191WOct 2 · 14:40F. Krcil2.007430K. Kufel1.721111113WOct 2 · 13:30K. Kufel1.701113113B. Czerwinski2.0561190WOct 2 · 12:15J. Przewlocki1.8611810101K. Kufel1.8561112123WOct 2 · 11:00J. Zochniak1.4781511782K. Kufel2.401113911113WOct 2 · 09:25B. Warpas2.2010970K. Kufel1.581211113WOct 2 · 08:10K. Kufel1.491011311113M. Lukaszewski2.4512711662WOct 2 · 06:30R. Stapor1.77413101382K. Kufel1.9511111211113
M. Misiak10
LOct 3 · 05:40I. Dabrowski1.91611911113M. Misiak1.8011611762LOct 3 · 04:55M. Misiak1.83113541B. Mleczko1.8391111113LOct 3 · 03:45M. Misiak2.10812661M. Marchlewski1.67111011113LSep 26 · 14:40B. Wisniewski2.25111115113M. Misiak1.557131391WSep 26 · 13:30M. Misiak1.3313128113J. Rolak3.1011101181WSep 26 · 12:15A. Szoltysek2.6081112662M. Misiak1.421151011113LSep 26 · 11:00K. Guminski2.1511811113M. Misiak1.60711991LSep 26 · 09:25J. Przewlocki2.4011711113M. Misiak1.47811981WSep 26 · 07:40M. Misiak1.5151113113B. Wisniewski2.401171181WSep 26 · 06:30M. Misiak1.3411411113J. Rolak3.00511841
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