TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Illia Fokin vs Pavlo Melnichuk 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
141212101012116––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:40 and never touched: 73.9% is still 73.9%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
73.9%
73.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingIllia Fokin above · Pavlo Melnichuk below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 87 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Illia Fokin at 73.9%
87 points played in total.
H2H Illia Fokin 6–1 Pavlo Melnichuk Pavlo Melnichuk has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:4073.9%Our read76.9%to break even at 1.30
short by 3.0pp76.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.30 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Fokin
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Fokin
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fokin 1023 vs Melnichuk 920
Fokin
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fokin 40% vs Melnichuk 100%
Melnichuk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fokin 40% vs Melnichuk 70%
Melnichuk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fokin -1 · Melnichuk +5
Melnichuk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Fokin) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnichuk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFokin 1.30 / Melnichuk 3.40
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Fokin)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223903
Fokin1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 60 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it85% 33 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it73% 49 of 67
Melnichuk3.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 27 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back18% 9 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeFokin6wins
AwayMelnichuk1wins
1 of 7 to a deciderFokin leads 6–1, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFokin100%4 of 4
AwayMelnichuk33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fokin4Melnichuk3n = 7Fokin took 4 of 7
S2Fokin6Melnichuk1n = 7Fokin took 6 of 7
S3Fokin4Melnichuk3n = 7Fokin took 4 of 7
S4Fokin3Melnichuk0n = 3Fokin took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricFokinMelnichukF − MBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match37.430.3+7.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFokinMelnichukBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 294 vs 104 / 18851%55.3%150 / 294 vs 104 / 188Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
FokinFokin 1.30/Melnichuk 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.9%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 15 · 09:55I. Fokin2810990P. Melnichuk341211113
WAug 11 · 04:25I. Fokin4111118113P. Melnichuk31771161
WAug 10 · 17:25I. Fokin50811911113P. Melnichuk3811611462
WJul 23 · 09:55I. Fokin341112113P. Melnichuk2671090
WJul 22 · 17:25I. Fokin351111133P. Melnichuk2999110
WJun 9 · 05:25I. Fokin4171211113P. Melnichuk311110731
WJun 8 · 17:25I. Fokin331111113P. Melnichuk239950
I. Fokin10
LOct 1 · 14:25I. Fokin1.2071116592M. Senyk4.331181411113WOct 1 · 12:25I. Fokin1.251111153O. Bolnyh3.7538130LSep 24 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.6781111113I. Fokin2.10117931WSep 24 · 09:55M. Treschetka1.30911101172I. Fokin3.40111127113LSep 24 · 08:25M. Dunas1.731111113I. Fokin2.006250WSep 24 · 06:25Y. Shcherbak3.751111101042I. Fokin1.25591212113LSep 24 · 04:25V. Ivanytskyi2.001111123I. Fokin1.7356100WSep 23 · 18:25V. Ivanytskyi2.1081171292I. Fokin1.671191110113LSep 23 · 17:25M. Dunas1.91101711113I. Fokin1.801215991LSep 23 · 15:55A. Nikolenko1.80661111113I. Fokin1.9111118962
P. Melnichuk10
WOct 1 · 13:55Y. Shcherbak1.61139941P. Melnichuk2.20111111113WOct 1 · 11:55O. Martynenko1.8012890P. Melnichuk1.911411113WAug 30 · 10:55V. Sydorchuk2.2596131182P. Melnichuk1.571111118113WAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 08:25P. Chyzh1.3312681182P. Melnichuk3.251011119113LAug 30 · 06:25V. Ivanytskyi1.17111011113P. Melnichuk4.50812861WAug 30 · 04:25O. Bolnyh1.5711711352P. Melnichuk2.25611911113WAug 29 · 18:55V. Sydorchuk2.10118771P. Melnichuk1.6771111113LAug 29 · 17:25P. Melnichuk2.0010670O. Bolnyh1.73121183LAug 29 · 15:25P. Chyzh1.40101111113P. Melnichuk2.75129891
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