TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vojtech Toman vs Ondrej Karpisek 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11911131171214611
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:28 and never touched: 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeOndrej Karpisek to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVojtech Toman above · Ondrej Karpisek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 105 set 5, 6-11 · our read held Ondrej Karpisek at 66.3%
105 points played in total.
H2H Vojtech Toman 0–2 Ondrej Karpisek Vojtech Toman has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:2866.3%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 5.1pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Karpisek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Toman 1524 vs Karpisek 1424
Toman
Wrong
both rated, 101 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Toman 60% vs Karpisek 40%
Toman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Toman 80% vs Karpisek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Toman +1 · Karpisek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Karpisek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpisek form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsToman 2.75 / Karpisek 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Karpisek)-5.1pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13223627
Toman2.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 24 days ago (Sep 07) · back after a break
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Karpisek1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 26 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it69% 18 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeToman0wins
AwayKarpisek2wins
Karpisek leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricTomanKarpisekT − KBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match27.538.5−11.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTomanKarpisekBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 93 vs 212 / 45350.5%46.8%47 / 93 vs 212 / 453Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KarpisekToman 2.75/Karpisek 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Karpisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Karpisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJan 21 · 22:05V. Toman215880O. Karpisek331111113
LJan 21 · 20:00V. Toman34813671O. Karpisek44111111113
V. Toman10
WSep 7 · 20:44V. Toman2.201311113T. Bertho1.6111870LSep 7 · 19:45V. Toman1.91118981J. Tichy1.8081111113LSep 7 · 18:15T. Bertho1.67115123133V. Toman2.106111011112WSep 7 · 17:45Z. Kuksa1.5385110V. Toman2.381111133WSep 2 · 16:58L. Tuma2.20811100V. Toman1.611113123WSep 2 · 15:30P. Hlina2.00111178132V. Toman1.73861111153WSep 2 · 15:00V. Toman1.73611117113L. Tuma2.0011941172WSep 2 · 14:00V. Toman1.671111113M. Vorel2.107570WAug 26 · 16:29F. Schmidtmayer2.6371110111V. Toman1.4411612133WAug 26 · 15:30V. Toman1.671111113F. Schmidtmayer2.105860
O. Karpisek10
LSep 30 · 20:58M. Vana1.7381113113O. Karpisek2.001191181WSep 30 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer2.2571281192O. Karpisek1.571110118113WSep 30 · 19:00O. Karpisek2.201111126113M. Vana1.6179141182LSep 30 · 18:00O. Karpisek1.449880M. Drabek2.631111113LSep 12 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8311117123O. Karpisek1.838711101WSep 12 · 15:00O. Karpisek2.1011118113F. Kubos1.67491181WSep 12 · 14:00O. Karpisek1.5771211893J. Hanacek2.25111091172WSep 9 · 21:08J. Mejzlik2.108680O. Karpisek1.671111113WSep 9 · 19:30O. Karpisek1.73311513113J. Hanacek2.00116111152WSep 9 · 18:30O. Karpisek1.801111910113J. Mejzlik1.9194111272
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