TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Karpisek vs Martin Drabek 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811811––––
Martin Drabek
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:51 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeOndrej Karpisek to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Karpisek above · Martin Drabek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 58 set 3, 8-11 · our read held Ondrej Karpisek at 65.7%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Karpisek 6–3 Martin Drabek Martin Drabek has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:5165.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Karpisek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Karpisek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpisek 1426 vs Drabek 1364
Karpisek
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpisek 80% vs Drabek 40%
Karpisek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpisek 50% vs Drabek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpisek -1 · Drabek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Karpisek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpisek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpisek 1.444 / Drabek 2.625
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Karpisek)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13218874
Karpisek1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 18 days ago (Sep 12) · back after a break
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 25 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it68% 17 of 25
Drabek2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 24)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 13 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back28% 5 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back23% 3 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKarpisek6wins
AwayDrabek3wins
Karpisek leads 6–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpisek100%5 of 5
AwayDrabek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpisek5Drabek4n = 9Karpisek took 5 of 9
S2Karpisek7Drabek2n = 9Karpisek took 7 of 9
S3Karpisek5Drabek4n = 9Karpisek took 5 of 9
S4Karpisek3Drabek2n = 5Karpisek took 3 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricKarpisekDrabekK − DBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match33.730.7+3.0per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpisekDrabekBasisWin rate · lifetime212 / 453 vs 43 / 12346.8%35%212 / 453 vs 43 / 123Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KarpisekKarpisek 1.44/Drabek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Karpisek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Drabek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WNov 13 · 20:30O. Karpisek44111111113M. Drabek34751391
LOct 22 · 20:12O. Karpisek30811741M. Drabek4011711113
LOct 22 · 19:15O. Karpisek1642100M. Drabek341111123
WOct 15 · 18:45O. Karpisek341211113M. Drabek2610880
WMay 26 · 19:45O. Karpisek331111113M. Drabek235990
WApr 30 · 18:15O. Karpisek3741111113M. Drabek26116361
LApr 9 · 18:45O. Karpisek331051171M. Drabek3812114113
WApr 7 · 19:15O. Karpisek341112113M. Drabek2591060
WJan 24 · 15:30O. Karpisek4211119113M. Drabek30681151
O. Karpisek10
WSep 30 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer2.2571281192O. Karpisek1.571110118113WSep 30 · 19:00O. Karpisek2.201111126113M. Vana1.6179141182LSep 12 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8311117123O. Karpisek1.838711101WSep 12 · 15:00O. Karpisek2.1011118113F. Kubos1.67491181WSep 12 · 14:00O. Karpisek1.5771211893J. Hanacek2.25111091172WSep 9 · 21:08J. Mejzlik2.108680O. Karpisek1.671111113WSep 9 · 19:30O. Karpisek1.73311513113J. Hanacek2.00116111152WSep 9 · 18:30O. Karpisek1.801111910113J. Mejzlik1.9194111272LSep 9 · 17:30O. Karpisek2.103111141M. Vana1.6711613113LAug 31 · 21:09L. Hendrych1.7311129113O. Karpisek2.004101171
M. Drabek10
LSep 30 · 18:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83541111133M. Drabek1.83111183112LSep 24 · 21:03M. Drabek2.504119101J. Marhol1.5011911123WSep 24 · 20:00M. Drabek2.10781111113M. Vana1.6711114652LSep 24 · 18:30M. Barton1.6771111113M. Drabek2.10117981WSep 24 · 18:00J. Marhol1.448111011102M. Drabek2.63116126123LSep 10 · 20:28M. Drabek1.73771171F. Schmidtmayer2.0011115113WSep 10 · 19:30F. Schmidtmayer1.83211641M. Drabek1.8311711113WSep 10 · 19:00M. Drabek1.9112911113J. Pina1.801011681WSep 10 · 18:00M. Drabek3.0021311113T. Stejskal1.361111941LAug 11 · 20:43J. Hanacek1.911111113M. Drabek1.807930
Upcoming Matches
O. Karpisek
M. Drabek
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.