TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Ondrej Polak vs Matej Holub 3-1 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141191214115––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
How it is goingOndrej Polak above · Matej Holub below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-12
Point 59 set 3, 12-12
59 points drawn · the score is 18 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Ondrej Polak 1–1 Matej Holub Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Polak beat Holub 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Polak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.53 / Holub 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Polak)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13200383
Polak1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 33 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it78% 25 of 32
Holub2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 41 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back33% 14 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePolak1wins
AwayHolub1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPolakHolubP − HBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match46.046.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime96 / 164 vs 123 / 22058.5%55.9%96 / 164 vs 123 / 220Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.53/Holub 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 26 · 12:35O. Polak571512811113M. Holub54171011882
LSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak356111081M. Holub3811412113
O. Polak10
WSep 26 · 12:35O. Polak1.571512811113M. Holub2.25171011882LSep 26 · 11:05J. Hitzger1.801111113O. Polak1.919890WSep 26 · 10:35O. Stehlik2.2011711712O. Polak1.61811911113LSep 20 · 13:35O. Polak1.338116101J. Ruzicka3.2511811123WSep 20 · 12:05O. Stehlik1.918960O. Polak1.801111113WSep 20 · 11:35J. Ruzicka1.80115941O. Polak1.9161111113WSep 20 · 10:35O. Polak1.8311911113A. Veliiev1.83811871WSep 20 · 09:39T. Trnka2.00961191O. Polak1.7311118113WSep 20 · 08:05O. Polak1.801111113S. Vyskocil1.915680LSep 20 · 07:05O. Polak1.5710770T. Trnka2.251211113
M. Holub10
LSep 26 · 12:35O. Polak1.571512811113M. Holub2.25171011882LSep 26 · 11:35M. Holub2.10115671O. Stehlik1.6761111113LSep 26 · 10:05J. Hitzger1.5311812113M. Holub2.387111071LSep 25 · 13:35J. Ruzicka1.611111113M. Holub2.207870WSep 25 · 12:05M. Holub1.80911111113J. Ruzicka1.9111731182LSep 25 · 11:05M. Holub1.91411111172R. Neterda1.80118913113WSep 25 · 10:05M. Holub1.67111299113K. Lahodny2.10910111152LSep 10 · 17:40M. Holub2.256411101J. Ruzicka1.5711117123WSep 10 · 16:35M. Holub2.381211113M. Mastera1.5310870WSep 10 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.50118911102M. Holub2.50811119123
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