TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Adam Kanak vs Ales Cizek 1-3 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811119311911––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAles Cizek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Kanak above · Ales Cizek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Ales Cizek at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Adam Kanak 3–1 Ales Cizek Ales Cizek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Kanak beat Cizek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:38What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kanak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Kanak
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanak 1553 vs Cizek 1496
Kanak
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanak 40% vs Cizek 60%
Cizek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanak 40% vs Cizek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanak -1 · Cizek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Kanak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanak 1.53 / Cizek 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kanak)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13196803
Kanak1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 35 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28
Cizek2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 71 of 168
Down 0–1, comes back18% 16 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKanak3wins
AwayCizek1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderKanak leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanak2Cizek2n = 4split evenly
S2Kanak4Cizek0n = 4Kanak took 4 of 4
S3Kanak2Cizek2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKanakCizekK − CBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match39.535.5+4.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKanakCizekBasisWin rate · lifetime77 / 138 vs 234 / 49355.8%47.5%77 / 138 vs 234 / 493Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KanakKanak 1.53/Cizek 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.6%
Kanak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 25 · 21:10A. Kanak31811391A. Cizek4211911113
WSep 25 · 18:40A. Kanak411217123A. Cizek351015100
WSep 16 · 19:15A. Kanak531111811123A. Cizek42136112102
WSep 7 · 19:40A. Kanak331111113A. Cizek239860
A. Kanak10
LSep 25 · 19:40A. Kanak2.001151111122M. Moravec1.73911135143WSep 25 · 18:40A. Kanak1.571217123A. Cizek2.251015100WSep 25 · 17:40A. Kanak1.67111112133D. Vitasek2.1061310111LSep 23 · 16:45A. Kanak1.8011641282D. Jr1.918111110113LSep 23 · 16:15K. Kleprlik1.831211113A. Kanak1.8310680LSep 23 · 15:15A. Kanak2.751371211142B. Mrowetz1.401111148163WSep 23 · 13:45D. Jr1.80127811102A. Kanak1.911011118123LSep 21 · 21:13A. Kanak1.679880E. Precek2.101111113WSep 21 · 19:45E. Precek2.0051161172A. Kanak1.73119118113LSep 21 · 19:15D. Branny2.501111113A. Kanak1.507960
A. Cizek10
WSep 25 · 20:10A. Cizek1.911311113D. Vitasek1.8011660LSep 25 · 18:40A. Kanak1.571217123A. Cizek2.251015100WSep 25 · 18:10M. Moravec1.368690A. Cizek3.001111113WSep 22 · 12:39M. Raska2.10119951A. Cizek1.6741111113LSep 22 · 12:10A. Cizek1.7381010M. Raska2.001112113LSep 22 · 10:40L. Kantor2.001711127113A. Cizek1.73197101142LSep 22 · 10:10M. Moravec1.441111143A. Cizek2.6366120LSep 20 · 08:44A. Cizek1.5710770T. Molin2.251211113LSep 20 · 07:40P. Marsalek1.73116511113A. Cizek2.0071111692LSep 20 · 07:10J. Przybyla2.10123611113A. Cizek1.67101111892
Upcoming Matches
A. Kanak
Nothing scheduled
A. Cizek
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