TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Berdych vs Miroslav Novotny 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511811117117118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:00 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Novotny to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Berdych above · Miroslav Novotny below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Miroslav Novotny at 58.1%
90 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Berdych 8–12 Miroslav Novotny Pavel Berdych has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:00What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Novotny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-12 in 20
Novotny
Wrong
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Berdych 1283 vs Novotny 1226
Berdych
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Berdych 40% vs Novotny 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Berdych 50% vs Novotny 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Berdych -1 · Novotny -3
Novotny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBerdych 2.10 / Novotny 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Novotny)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13189184
Berdych2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 22 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Novotny1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 36 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it68% 28 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBerdych4wins
AwayNovotny6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBerdych40%2 of 5
AwayNovotny60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Berdych5Novotny5n = 10split evenly
S2Berdych4Novotny6n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S3Berdych3Novotny7n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S4Berdych5Novotny4n = 9Berdych took 5 of 9
S5Berdych2Novotny2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBerdychNovotnyB − NBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.742.3−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerdychNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 445 vs 152 / 33148.3%45.9%215 / 445 vs 152 / 331Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyBerdych 2.10/Novotny 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Berdych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 02:30P. Berdych48111367112M. Novotny548111111133
WSep 12 · 19:00P. Berdych47111110153M. Novotny429812131
WSep 10 · 18:30P. Berdych51991111113M. Novotny3711116452
LSep 6 · 01:00P. Berdych23112821M. Novotny3961111113
WOct 15 · 17:30P. Berdych3511112113M. Novotny378111081
LOct 15 · 15:30P. Berdych4381181332M. Novotny521181111113
LSep 26 · 14:00P. Berdych321011561M. Novotny4112711113
LSep 12 · 20:30P. Berdych36118981M. Novotny4071111113
WSep 6 · 02:00P. Berdych531371111113M. Novotny4615119652
LAug 23 · 03:03P. Berdych1941140M. Novotny351113113
P. Berdych10
LSep 26 · 01:00P. Berdych2.507650P. Bruzek1.501111113WSep 26 · 00:00J. Pelikan1.4461181192P. Berdych2.63118118113WSep 25 · 22:30A. Schneeberger1.30611591P. Berdych3.4011711113LSep 22 · 17:00P. Berdych1.83671111112J. Framberk1.83111188133LSep 22 · 16:00P. Berdych2.1081111592Z. Drabek1.67115711113WSep 22 · 15:30J. Framberk1.8011812982P. Berdych1.919111011113LSep 22 · 14:00P. Berdych1.73781331V. Sr2.00111111113WSep 20 · 02:59P. Berdych1.611111123L. Havrda2.2065100LSep 20 · 02:30P. Berdych2.00111367112M. Novotny1.738111111133WSep 20 · 01:30J. Pelikan1.28611691P. Berdych3.5011411113
M. Novotny10
LSep 26 · 00:30M. Novotny2.251110111032A. Schneeberger1.57812812113LSep 25 · 23:00M. Novotny2.758111031J. Pelikan1.4011712113LSep 25 · 22:00P. Bruzek1.831111113M. Novotny1.839880WSep 23 · 17:09M. Novotny1.4112118113J. Grohsgott2.551081171WSep 23 · 16:00M. Barta2.10911961M. Novotny1.6711911113LSep 23 · 15:00L. Havrda2.101111123M. Novotny1.6798100WSep 23 · 14:30M. Novotny1.401111113J. Grohsgott2.758990LSep 20 · 03:30J. Pelikan1.53551113113M. Novotny2.35111151142WSep 20 · 02:30P. Berdych2.00111367112M. Novotny1.738111111133WSep 20 · 01:00L. Havrda2.2011115652M. Novotny1.61951111113
Upcoming Matches
P. Berdych
M. Novotny
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