TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Petr Bruzek vs Pavel Berdych 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 26Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210611115511118
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:56 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timePetr Bruzek to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Bruzek above · Pavel Berdych below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Petr Bruzek at 63.6%
90 points played in total.
H2H Petr Bruzek 5–2 Pavel Berdych Pavel Berdych has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Bruzek beat Berdych 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.32 (69%)
Bruzek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Bruzek
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bruzek 1329 vs Berdych 1292
Bruzek
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bruzek 100% vs Berdych 60%
Bruzek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bruzek 60% vs Berdych 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bruzek +5 · Berdych +1
Bruzek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Bruzek) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Berdych form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (34%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBruzek 1.32 / Berdych 2.95
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Bruzek)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13198267
Bruzek1.32
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 36 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it79% 27 of 34
Berdych2.95
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 22 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBruzek5wins
AwayBerdych2wins
4 of 7 to a deciderBruzek leads 5–2, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBruzek100%4 of 4
AwayBerdych66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bruzek4Berdych3n = 7Bruzek took 4 of 7
S2Bruzek6Berdych1n = 7Bruzek took 6 of 7
S3Bruzek5Berdych2n = 7Bruzek took 5 of 7
S4Bruzek2Berdych3n = 5Berdych took 3 of 5
S5Bruzek2Berdych2n = 4split evenly
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricBruzekBerdychBruzek − BerdychBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match42.435.6+6.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBruzekBerdychBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 385 vs 216 / 44644.9%48.4%173 / 385 vs 216 / 446Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.636.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BruzekBruzek 1.32/Berdych 2.95
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Bruzek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bruzek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 26 · 01:00P. Bruzek331111113P. Berdych187650
LDec 19 · 02:30P. Bruzek43511111062P. Berdych51119812113
WNov 30 · 13:30P. Bruzek331111113P. Berdych118210
WMay 19 · 20:00P. Bruzek551671110113P. Berdych53141181282
WApr 10 · 21:30P. Bruzek46131111113P. Berdych29152931
LApr 10 · 19:00P. Bruzek4071181132P. Berdych48116119113
WFeb 8 · 00:00P. Bruzek47111177113P. Berdych3938111162
P. Bruzek10
WSep 26 · 02:30J. Pelikan2.207670P. Bruzek1.611111113WSep 26 · 01:00P. Berdych2.507650P. Bruzek1.501111113WSep 25 · 23:30P. Bruzek3.0011116113A. Schneeberger1.36551121WSep 25 · 22:00P. Bruzek1.831111113M. Novotny1.839880WSep 23 · 03:00J. Grohsgott2.254830P. Bruzek1.581111113LSep 23 · 02:30P. Bruzek1.53121011982J. Pelikan2.381012911113LSep 23 · 01:30J. Pleskot2.501114113P. Bruzek1.5081270WSep 23 · 00:00P. Bruzek1.501111113S. Mazanek2.508590LSep 22 · 23:00J. Grohsgott2.751111133P. Bruzek1.4079110LSep 14 · 21:00P. Bruzek1.5728111172M. Novotny2.25111166113
P. Berdych10
WSep 26 · 02:00P. Berdych2.10581111113M. Novotny1.6711117782LSep 26 · 01:00P. Berdych2.507650P. Bruzek1.501111113WSep 26 · 00:00J. Pelikan1.4461181192P. Berdych2.63118118113WSep 25 · 22:30A. Schneeberger1.30611591P. Berdych3.4011711113LSep 22 · 17:00P. Berdych1.83671111112J. Framberk1.83111188133LSep 22 · 16:00P. Berdych2.1081111592Z. Drabek1.67115711113WSep 22 · 15:30J. Framberk1.8011812982P. Berdych1.919111011113LSep 22 · 14:00P. Berdych1.73781331V. Sr2.00111111113WSep 20 · 02:59P. Berdych1.611111123L. Havrda2.2065100LSep 20 · 02:30P. Berdych2.00111367112M. Novotny1.738111111133
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