TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Miroslav Novotny vs Josef Pelikan 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 25Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111171012311––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:20 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeJosef Pelikan to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Novotny above · Josef Pelikan below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 73 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Josef Pelikan at 66.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Novotny 2–10 Josef Pelikan Miroslav Novotny has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:20What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Pelikan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-10 in 12
Pelikan
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1252 vs Pelikan 1330
Pelikan
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 60% vs Pelikan 80%
Pelikan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 60% vs Pelikan 80%
Pelikan
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny -1 · Pelikan +3
Pelikan
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Pelikan) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 2.75 / Pelikan 1.40
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Pelikan)+6.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13188589
Novotny2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 11 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Pelikan1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Sep 23)
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 47 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it86% 31 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny2wins
AwayPelikan8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPelikan leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny50%2 of 4
AwayPelikan100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny4Pelikan6n = 10Pelikan took 6 of 10
S2Novotny3Pelikan7n = 10Pelikan took 7 of 10
S3Novotny7Pelikan3n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S4Novotny0Pelikan6n = 6Pelikan took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnyPelikanN − PBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.137.5−2.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyPelikanBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 329 vs 153 / 30146.2%50.8%152 / 329 vs 153 / 301Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PelikanNovotny 2.75/Pelikan 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.6%
Pelikan · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pelikan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 03:30M. Novotny42111151142J. Pelikan45551113113
LSep 19 · 23:30M. Novotny1910630J. Pelikan341211113
LSep 8 · 17:00M. Novotny4212511952J. Pelikan481011511113
LSep 8 · 16:00M. Novotny4113101171J. Pelikan4315125113
LAug 12 · 17:30M. Novotny4111711121J. Pelikan3913111143
LAug 12 · 14:30M. Novotny1972100J. Pelikan341111123
WJul 3 · 15:00M. Novotny331111113J. Pelikan239950
WApr 22 · 21:00M. Novotny351111133J. Pelikan2036110
LApr 22 · 20:30M. Novotny371341191J. Pelikan3915112113
LApr 12 · 20:30M. Novotny428171161J. Pelikan5011199113
M. Novotny10
LSep 25 · 22:00P. Bruzek1.831111113M. Novotny1.839880WSep 23 · 17:09M. Novotny1.4112118113J. Grohsgott2.551081171WSep 23 · 16:00M. Barta2.10911961M. Novotny1.6711911113LSep 23 · 15:00L. Havrda2.101111123M. Novotny1.6798100WSep 23 · 14:30M. Novotny1.401111113J. Grohsgott2.758990LSep 20 · 03:30J. Pelikan1.53551113113M. Novotny2.35111151142WSep 20 · 02:30P. Berdych2.00111367112M. Novotny1.738111111133WSep 20 · 01:00L. Havrda2.2011115652M. Novotny1.61951111113LSep 19 · 23:30M. Novotny2.5010630J. Pelikan1.501211113WSep 19 · 22:00M. Novotny1.5011136113J. Grohsgott2.505111161
J. Pelikan10
WSep 23 · 03:30J. Pleskot2.201181114112J. Pelikan1.60611816133WSep 23 · 02:30P. Bruzek1.53121011982J. Pelikan2.381012911113WSep 23 · 01:00S. Mazanek2.63691161J. Pelikan1.4411118113LSep 22 · 23:30J. Pelikan1.73412111142J. Pleskot2.001110813113WSep 22 · 22:00J. Pelikan1.5011116113J. Grohsgott2.50451181WSep 20 · 03:30J. Pelikan1.53551113113M. Novotny2.35111151142LSep 20 · 01:30J. Pelikan1.28611691P. Berdych3.5011411113WSep 20 · 00:30J. Grohsgott1.836590J. Pelikan1.831111113WSep 19 · 23:30M. Novotny2.5010630J. Pelikan1.501211113WSep 19 · 22:30J. Pelikan1.911111113L. Havrda1.807980
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