TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
Jan Kocab vs Pavel Benes 3-0 · TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Jan Kocab
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112119118––––
Pavel Benes
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Kocab to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Kocab above · Pavel Benes below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 52 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jan Kocab at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Jan Kocab 24–23 Pavel Benes Pavel Benes has won 23 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:49What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Benes
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-23 in 47
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kocab 1707 vs Benes 1688
Kocab
Correct
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kocab 60% vs Benes 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kocab 70% vs Benes 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kocab +1 · Benes -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Benes) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKocab 2.00 / Benes 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Benes)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13180678
Kocab2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 29 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 30
Benes1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 77 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it76% 51 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKocab3wins
AwayBenes7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBenes leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKocab75%3 of 4
AwayBenes100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kocab4Benes6n = 10Benes took 6 of 10
S2Kocab3Benes7n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S3Kocab3Benes7n = 10Benes took 7 of 10
S4Kocab1Benes5n = 6Benes took 5 of 6
S5Kocab2Benes1n = 3Kocab took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricKocabBenesK − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.537.9−3.4per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKocabBenesBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 269 vs 267 / 56047.6%47.7%128 / 269 vs 267 / 560Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BenesKocab 2.00/Benes 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Benes · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kocab won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 10:50J. Kocab258980P. Benes331111113
LSep 21 · 17:25J. Kocab178450P. Benes331111113
WSep 17 · 13:28J. Kocab481110115113P. Benes4181251152
LSep 17 · 12:20J. Kocab531111111192P. Benes52691313113
WSep 15 · 10:30J. Kocab48111169113P. Benes3643111172
WSep 15 · 09:25J. Kocab4211911113P. Benes36911971
LSep 3 · 10:40J. Kocab389117111P. Benes4111611133
LSep 3 · 06:55J. Kocab32591171P. Benes3911116113
LSep 1 · 10:30J. Kocab1851030P. Benes341112113
LSep 1 · 07:55J. Kocab2461080P. Benes341112113
J. Kocab10
WSep 22 · 13:35J. Kocab1.441111113M. Brozek2.632630LSep 22 · 12:20V. Nadvornik2.0011115113J. Kocab1.73961181WSep 22 · 11:50M. Brozek2.3831171182J. Kocab1.53117115113LSep 22 · 10:50J. Kocab1.918980P. Benes1.801111113WSep 21 · 17:58J. Kocab1.73111011113D. Hyza2.00912561LSep 21 · 17:25J. Kocab2.008450P. Benes1.731111113WSep 21 · 15:55D. Hyza1.806980J. Kocab1.911111113WSep 21 · 15:25M. Brozek2.5051111912J. Kocab1.50119811113WSep 19 · 14:10J. Kocab1.451114113M. Brozek2.5551290WSep 19 · 13:25J. Kocab3.001011911113M. Cerny1.3612911382
P. Benes10
LSep 22 · 14:05V. Nadvornik1.6091211113P. Benes2.201110861WSep 22 · 12:50P. Benes1.8313121011123M. Brozek1.831114129102LSep 22 · 11:20V. Nadvornik1.57821111123P. Benes2.25111199102WSep 22 · 10:50J. Kocab1.918980P. Benes1.801111113WSep 21 · 18:28P. Benes1.8011118123M. Brozek1.919711101WSep 21 · 17:25J. Kocab2.008450P. Benes1.731111113LSep 21 · 16:25P. Benes1.8311991572M. Brozek1.839111113113WSep 21 · 14:55D. Hyza1.9181070P. Benes1.801112113LSep 17 · 13:28P. Benes1.9181251152J. Kocab1.801110115113WSep 17 · 12:20P. Benes1.73691313113J. Kocab2.001111111192
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