TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ondrej Paril vs Radovan Polasek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 23Finished
Ondrej Paril
Home
1.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1165111416114811
Radovan Polasek
Away
1.95
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:30 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeRadovan Polasek to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Paril above · Radovan Polasek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 97 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Radovan Polasek at 58.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Paril 46–40 Radovan Polasek Radovan Polasek has won 40 of their 86 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:30What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Paril
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-40 in 86
Paril
Wrong
gap of 6 in 86, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paril 1840 vs Polasek 1827
Paril
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paril 40% vs Polasek 60%
Polasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paril 40% vs Polasek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Paril +2 · Polasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Paril) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paril form (40%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParil 1.75 / Polasek 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Paril)+1.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13180080
Paril1.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 166 of 294
Up 2–0, closes it92% 79 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it77% 126 of 163
Polasek1.95
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 133 of 265
Down 0–1, comes back27% 36 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParil5wins
AwayPolasek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParil60%3 of 5
AwayPolasek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paril5Polasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Paril5Polasek5n = 10split evenly
S3Paril5Polasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Paril3Polasek4n = 7Polasek took 4 of 7
S5Paril2Polasek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricParilPolasekParil − PolasekBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.738.4−0.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParilPolasekBasisWin rate · lifetime503 / 968 vs 478 / 94152%50.8%503 / 968 vs 478 / 941Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ParilParil 1.75/Polasek 1.95
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Paril · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Polasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 07:00O. Paril49115141182R. Polasek48611164113
WSep 11 · 12:00O. Paril331111113R. Polasek195590
LSep 10 · 13:30O. Paril198470R. Polasek331111113
LSep 10 · 10:00O. Paril37981191R. Polasek4111118113
WSep 9 · 09:30O. Paril43111110113R. Polasek37891281
WSep 9 · 07:00O. Paril42711112113R. Polasek4611781192
WSep 4 · 10:30O. Paril521111118113R. Polasek4913991172
LSep 4 · 09:30O. Paril187560R. Polasek331111113
WSep 4 · 07:30O. Paril4211911113R. Polasek29411861
LAug 30 · 09:30O. Paril42111111362R. Polasek49591311113
O. Paril10
WSep 23 · 06:00R. Revay2.001111121072O. Paril1.711361012113WSep 21 · 16:59M. Biolek1.7373100O. Paril2.001111123LSep 21 · 16:30M. Biolek1.731113113O. Paril2.0061160LSep 21 · 15:30O. Paril2.0078111152J. Dzida1.73111196113LSep 21 · 14:30J. Szotkowski1.731151111133O. Paril2.00911913112LSep 15 · 18:00M. Biolek1.73119811113O. Paril2.0091111772LSep 11 · 13:30O. Paril1.85881151P. Wawrosz1.8511119113WSep 11 · 12:00O. Paril1.731111113R. Polasek2.005590LSep 11 · 11:30R. Revay1.911113109113O. Paril1.80311121162WSep 11 · 10:00O. Paril1.804101111113P. Wawrosz1.9111128572
R. Polasek10
LSep 23 · 06:30R. Polasek2.00861171T. Zika1.7311116113WSep 22 · 13:30J. Szotkowski1.551457101R. Polasek2.25121111123LSep 22 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.5711118113R. Polasek2.25891191WSep 22 · 11:00M. Vavrecka2.005650R. Polasek1.731111113WSep 22 · 10:30R. Polasek1.9111128113T. Zika1.808101161WSep 22 · 08:58M. Navedla2.10116114102R. Polasek1.67811811123LSep 22 · 08:00R. Polasek1.73114971M. Vavrecka2.0041111113LSep 22 · 07:30T. Zika1.8311115113R. Polasek1.83691171LSep 22 · 06:00R. Polasek1.611231321M. Navedla2.20141111113LSep 11 · 12:00O. Paril1.731111113R. Polasek2.005590
Upcoming Matches
O. Paril
R. Polasek
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