TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Matyas Navedla vs Radovan Polasek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Matyas Navedla
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1186111184111012
Radovan Polasek
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingMatyas Navedla above · Radovan Polasek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 92 set 5, 10-12
92 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Navedla 24–30 Radovan Polasek Matyas Navedla has won 24 of their 54 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Navedla beat Polasek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Polasek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNavedla 2.10 / Polasek 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Polasek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13176679
Navedla2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 132 of 316
Down 0–1, comes back25% 40 of 158
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 73
Polasek1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 150 of 289
Up 2–0, closes it86% 77 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it72% 107 of 148
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNavedla6wins
AwayPolasek4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNavedla leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNavedla85.7%6 of 7
AwayPolasek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Navedla7Polasek3n = 10Navedla took 7 of 10
S2Navedla7Polasek3n = 10Navedla took 7 of 10
S3Navedla5Polasek5n = 10split evenly
S4Navedla4Polasek3n = 7Navedla took 4 of 7
S5Navedla1Polasek2n = 3Polasek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNavedlaPolasekN − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.137.0+3.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNavedlaPolasekBasisWin rate · lifetime372 / 786 vs 473 / 93447.3%50.6%372 / 786 vs 473 / 934Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolasekNavedla 2.10/Polasek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Polasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Polasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 06:00M. Navedla47141111113R. Polasek301231321
WSep 10 · 12:00M. Navedla381215113R. Polasek27101340
LSep 8 · 07:30M. Navedla44101161162R. Polasek49126119113
WAug 24 · 06:30M. Navedla3911116113R. Polasek32981141
WAug 23 · 19:30M. Navedla361111143R. Polasek2879120
LAug 14 · 10:00M. Navedla34117971R. Polasek4071111113
WAug 12 · 07:30M. Navedla341112113R. Polasek2781090
LAug 10 · 08:00M. Navedla4461191172R. Polasek47119115113
LJul 30 · 08:58M. Navedla32771171R. Polasek4111118113
WJul 30 · 08:30M. Navedla531210119113R. Polasek49101271192
M. Navedla10
LSep 22 · 08:30M. Navedla1.911110561T. Zika1.8081211113LSep 22 · 07:00M. Navedla2.25991131M. Vavrecka1.5711117113WSep 22 · 06:00R. Polasek1.611231321M. Navedla2.20141111113LSep 20 · 17:29M. Navedla2.3811571132T. Dousek1.53511119113LSep 20 · 16:30M. Navedla2.0011981382M. Grundel1.739111111113WSep 20 · 15:00M. Navedla2.00981112113J. Pilch1.73111191042WSep 20 · 14:00T. Dousek1.50118681M. Navedla2.5091111113WSep 19 · 21:00M. Navedla1.601111119113M. Cabis2.1081391132LSep 19 · 20:30P. Wawrosz1.73118116113M. Navedla2.0081171182LSep 19 · 19:30M. Navedla2.3881211942M. Vavrecka1.531110911113
R. Polasek10
LSep 22 · 08:00R. Polasek1.73114971M. Vavrecka2.0041111113LSep 22 · 07:30T. Zika1.8311115113R. Polasek1.83691171LSep 22 · 06:00R. Polasek1.611231321M. Navedla2.20141111113WSep 21 · 13:00R. Polasek1.911011159113R. Revay1.80126131172LSep 21 · 12:30R. Polasek1.9110760T. Zika1.801211113WSep 21 · 11:00R. Polasek1.8011127113R. Revay1.917101181LSep 21 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.57111111113R. Polasek2.25791361WSep 20 · 21:09R. Niezgoda2.00691191R. Polasek1.7311117113LSep 20 · 20:30R. Polasek1.91111299112T. Dousek1.809101111133WSep 20 · 19:00R. Polasek3.25311611123R. Niezgoda1.33117119102
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