TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Radovan Polasek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121161513911117
Radomir Revay
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadomir Revay to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadovan Polasek above · Radomir Revay below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 105 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Radomir Revay at 54.0%
105 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Polasek 71–54 Radomir Revay Radomir Revay has won 54 of their 125 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Polasek beat Revay 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:55What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Revay
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
71-54 in 125
Polasek
Correct
gap of 17 in 125, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polasek 1839 vs Revay 1829
Polasek
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polasek 40% vs Revay 60%
Revay
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polasek 40% vs Revay 70%
Revay
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polasek -1 · Revay +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Revay)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polasek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolasek 1.91 / Revay 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Revay)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13169736
Polasek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 131 of 260
Down 0–1, comes back27% 35 of 128
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 69
Revay1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 75 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it100% 33 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it77% 52 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolasek8wins
AwayRevay2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPolasek leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolasek87.5%7 of 8
AwayRevayn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polasek8Revay2n = 10Polasek took 8 of 10
S2Polasek7Revay3n = 10Polasek took 7 of 10
S3Polasek4Revay6n = 10Revay took 6 of 10
S4Polasek5Revay4n = 9Polasek took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolasekRevayP − RBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.637.4+4.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolasekRevayBasisWin rate · lifetime473 / 931 vs 311 / 59550.8%52.3%473 / 931 vs 311 / 595Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RevayPolasek 1.91/Revay 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Revay · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Polasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 13:00R. Polasek561011159113R. Revay49126131172
WSep 21 · 11:00R. Polasek4111127113R. Revay367101181
WSep 18 · 06:30R. Polasek42115114113R. Revay4381161172
WSep 14 · 07:30R. Polasek341211113R. Revay2210570
LSep 11 · 13:00R. Polasek361110691R. Revay4061211113
LSep 11 · 10:30R. Polasek42101111101R. Revay4612913123
WSep 9 · 06:30R. Polasek4111117123R. Revay368711101
WSep 3 · 06:30R. Polasek4111127113R. Revay326101151
WSep 2 · 06:00R. Polasek4111811113R. Revay33711871
WAug 29 · 06:30R. Polasek4211128113R. Revay378101181
R. Polasek10
LSep 21 · 12:30R. Polasek1.9110760T. Zika1.801211113WSep 21 · 11:00R. Polasek1.8011127113R. Revay1.917101181LSep 21 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.57111111113R. Polasek2.25791361WSep 20 · 21:09R. Niezgoda2.00691191R. Polasek1.7311117113LSep 20 · 20:30R. Polasek1.91111299112T. Dousek1.809101111133WSep 20 · 19:00R. Polasek3.25311611123R. Niezgoda1.33117119102LSep 20 · 18:00M. Biolek1.611111113R. Polasek2.206930LSep 18 · 17:30D. Tomica2.381112119113R. Polasek1.53710131192LSep 18 · 16:30D. Tomica2.38111110113R. Polasek1.53991231WSep 18 · 15:30R. Polasek1.501111113M. Grundel2.507260
R. Revay10
WSep 21 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.619111091R. Revay2.2011812113LSep 21 · 11:00R. Polasek1.8011127113R. Revay1.917101181LSep 21 · 10:30R. Revay2.009820T. Zika1.731111113WSep 18 · 13:30R. Revay1.85561111113P. Wawrosz1.8511119892WSep 18 · 12:00R. Revay2.00111396113T. Zika1.73811111172WSep 18 · 11:30P. Wawrosz1.8341181172R. Revay1.83119118113WSep 18 · 10:00R. Revay1.3671111113J. Pilch3.00119871LSep 18 · 09:29R. Revay1.9171111992P. Wawrosz1.80119411113WSep 18 · 08:00T. Zika1.833790R. Revay1.831111113WSep 18 · 07:00P. Wawrosz1.806117161R. Revay1.9111311183
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