TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Radovan Polasek
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
3111176111191210
Rostislav Niezgoda
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadovan Polasek above · Rostislav Niezgoda below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 91 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Polasek 1–3 Rostislav Niezgoda Radovan Polasek has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:36What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Niezgoda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Niezgoda
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polasek 1804 vs Niezgoda 1824
Niezgoda
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polasek 40% vs Niezgoda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polasek 50% vs Niezgoda 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polasek -3 · Niezgoda -1
Polasek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Niezgoda) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niezgoda form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolasek 3.25 / Niezgoda 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Niezgoda)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13158875
Polasek3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 130 of 257
Down 0–1, comes back27% 34 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 68
Niezgoda1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 7 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePolasek1wins
AwayNiezgoda3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderNiezgoda leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolasekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayNiezgoda66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polasek1Niezgoda3n = 4Niezgoda took 3 of 4
S2Polasek1Niezgoda3n = 4Niezgoda took 3 of 4
S3Polasek1Niezgoda3n = 4Niezgoda took 3 of 4
S4Polasek1Niezgoda2n = 3Niezgoda took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricPolasekNiezgodaP − NBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match30.842.8−12.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolasekNiezgodaBasisWin rate · lifetime469 / 924 vs 10 / 1750.8%58.8%469 / 924 vs 10 / 17Avg sets wonper match2.12.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.541.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaPolasek 3.25/Niezgoda 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.7%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Polasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 16 · 19:30R. Polasek341139111R. Niezgoda4491111133
LMar 20 · 20:30R. Polasek26831141R. Niezgoda4211119113
LMar 14 · 18:30R. Polasek178270R. Niezgoda331111113
WMar 14 · 16:00R. Polasek46611216113R. Niezgoda52117111492
R. Polasek10
LSep 20 · 18:00M. Biolek1.611111113R. Polasek2.206930LSep 18 · 17:30D. Tomica2.381112119113R. Polasek1.53710131192LSep 18 · 16:30D. Tomica2.38111110113R. Polasek1.53991231WSep 18 · 15:30R. Polasek1.501111113M. Grundel2.507260WSep 18 · 14:30J. Pilch2.2510730R. Polasek1.571211113WSep 18 · 08:58R. Polasek1.9171111113T. Zika1.80116561LSep 18 · 08:30P. Wawrosz2.0061111113R. Polasek1.73117421WSep 18 · 07:30R. Polasek1.83119114113T. Zika1.8351191192WSep 18 · 06:30R. Revay1.9181161172R. Polasek1.80115114113LSep 17 · 13:30R. Polasek1.856990T. Zika1.851111113
R. Niezgoda10
LSep 20 · 18:30R. Niezgoda1.736111110102T. Dousek2.00114712123WSep 19 · 13:00R. Niezgoda1.671111113T. Zika2.106730LSep 19 · 12:00M. Biolek2.001141011113R. Niezgoda1.7311112662WSep 19 · 11:00T. Zika2.2011711782R. Niezgoda1.61711811113LSep 19 · 10:30R. Niezgoda2.1010111191J. Szotkowski1.6712136113WSep 17 · 17:30J. Dzida1.917117121R. Niezgoda1.8011511143WSep 17 · 16:30R. Niezgoda2.001114911113T. Zika1.7361611852LSep 17 · 15:00R. Niezgoda1.83153991J. Szotkowski1.83131111113WSep 17 · 14:00J. Dzida1.8351111111R. Niezgoda1.8311913133LSep 16 · 21:28R. Niezgoda1.9111812692T. Zika1.807111011113
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