TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleh Karpenko vs Oleh Volynets 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Oleh Karpenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11991111610121311
Oleh Volynets
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Volynets to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Karpenko above · Oleh Volynets below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 103 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Oleh Volynets at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Karpenko 10–28 Oleh Volynets Oleh Karpenko has won 10 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:08What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Volynets
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-28 in 38
Volynets
Wrong
gap of 18 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karpenko 1561 vs Volynets 1427
Karpenko
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpenko 40% vs Volynets 20%
Karpenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpenko 40% vs Volynets 20%
Karpenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpenko -1 · Volynets -3
Volynets
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Volynets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volynets form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpenko 2.00 / Volynets 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Volynets)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13179638
Karpenko2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 76 of 177
Down 0–1, comes back30% 29 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back18% 11 of 60
Volynets1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 73 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it80% 31 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it63% 45 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarpenko7wins
AwayVolynets3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKarpenko leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarpenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayVolynets28.6%2 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karpenko3Volynets7n = 10Volynets took 7 of 10
S2Karpenko4Volynets6n = 10Volynets took 6 of 10
S3Karpenko7Volynets3n = 10Karpenko took 7 of 10
S4Karpenko6Volynets1n = 7Karpenko took 6 of 7
S5Karpenko3Volynets1n = 4Karpenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarpenkoVolynetsK − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.736.9+3.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpenkoVolynetsBasisWin rate · lifetime360 / 688 vs 327 / 61252.3%53.4%360 / 688 vs 327 / 612Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VolynetsKarpenko 2.00/Volynets 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Volynets · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Karpenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 04:30O. Karpenko536141111113O. Volynets4511163872
WAug 27 · 11:35O. Karpenko4071111113O. Volynets31117761
WAug 26 · 05:05O. Karpenko331111113O. Volynets176650
WAug 25 · 06:30O. Karpenko49912611113O. Volynets44111011392
LAug 20 · 05:05O. Karpenko238870O. Volynets331111113
LAug 14 · 09:50O. Karpenko4211811482O. Volynets46811511113
WJul 9 · 07:30O. Karpenko4371312113O. Volynets3711111051
LJul 7 · 10:40O. Karpenko2913790O. Volynets371511113
WJul 3 · 12:05O. Karpenko46111311113O. Volynets34515681
WJun 30 · 12:40O. Karpenko49791111113O. Volynets4511117972
O. Karpenko10
LSep 23 · 08:00D. Khairov2.3811116113O. Karpenko1.53871141WSep 23 · 06:00V. Kolesnykov1.8311129972O. Karpenko1.836101111113WSep 23 · 05:00I. Emets3.259111191O. Karpenko1.3311813113LSep 18 · 11:00V. Bilobrov2.20116611113O. Karpenko1.6141111572LSep 18 · 10:00A. Troyan1.6711511133O. Karpenko2.105116111LSep 18 · 08:30Y. Kovshun1.679111115113O. Karpenko2.1011971772WSep 18 · 06:30S. Kyienko1.441197111O. Karpenko2.6361111133LSep 18 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.4081211113O. Karpenko2.751110791WSep 15 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.61681121O. Karpenko2.2011118113LSep 15 · 10:00A. Troyan1.6761111113O. Karpenko2.10118941
O. Volynets10
LSep 23 · 11:00D. Khairov1.91118119113O. Volynets1.8061121192LSep 23 · 08:30I. Emets2.384101111113O. Volynets1.5311127672LSep 23 · 06:30A. Troyan1.571311113O. Volynets2.2511980LSep 23 · 04:30V. Kolesnykov1.831111113O. Volynets1.838950WSep 22 · 10:30Y. Volkov1.91116111192O. Volynets1.80131148113LSep 22 · 09:30O. Volynets3.008860V. Bilobrov1.361111113LSep 22 · 08:30O. Volynets1.837690Y. Kovshun1.831111113LSep 22 · 07:00O. Volynets1.8011910111A. Martyniuk1.9171112133LSep 22 · 05:00O. Volynets2.204770A. Troyan1.611111113WSep 17 · 12:05F. Voinarovskyi2.2011911952O. Volynets1.61611511113
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