TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tymur Ponomarenko vs Roman Gnoevoy 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Tymur Ponomarenko
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611311811––––
Roman Gnoevoy
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:56 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeRoman Gnoevoy to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTymur Ponomarenko above · Roman Gnoevoy below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 50 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Roman Gnoevoy at 58.1%
50 points played in total.
H2H Tymur Ponomarenko 6–11 Roman Gnoevoy Tymur Ponomarenko has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Gnoevoy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Gnoevoy
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1423 vs Gnoevoy 1546
Gnoevoy
Correct
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 20% vs Gnoevoy 60%
Gnoevoy
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 20% vs Gnoevoy 70%
Gnoevoy
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -2 · Gnoevoy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Gnoevoy) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.38 / Gnoevoy 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Gnoevoy)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13173700
Ponomarenko2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 35 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Gnoevoy1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 71 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it75% 48 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko3wins
AwayGnoevoy7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGnoevoy leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko60%3 of 5
AwayGnoevoy100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko5Gnoevoy5n = 10split evenly
S2Ponomarenko2Gnoevoy8n = 10Gnoevoy took 8 of 10
S3Ponomarenko3Gnoevoy7n = 10Gnoevoy took 7 of 10
S4Ponomarenko3Gnoevoy3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoGnoevoyP − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.437.1−4.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoGnoevoyBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 392 vs 409 / 81853.6%50%210 / 392 vs 409 / 818Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GnoevoyPonomarenko 2.38/Gnoevoy 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Gnoevoy · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gnoevoy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 03:55T. Ponomarenko249870R. Gnoevoy331111113
LSep 15 · 22:35T. Ponomarenko27531181R. Gnoevoy3911116113
WSep 11 · 03:55T. Ponomarenko331111113R. Gnoevoy228590
LSep 8 · 14:55T. Ponomarenko33118951R. Gnoevoy4291111113
LSep 4 · 01:25T. Ponomarenko195680R. Gnoevoy331111113
LSep 2 · 24:55T. Ponomarenko28741161R. Gnoevoy4111118113
LSep 1 · 01:25T. Ponomarenko1811070R. Gnoevoy341112113
LAug 30 · 22:55T. Ponomarenko531113811102R. Gnoevoy52815116123
WAug 28 · 18:05T. Ponomarenko4111118113R. Gnoevoy31471191
WAug 14 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko48119611113R. Gnoevoy4491111672
T. Ponomarenko10
LSep 23 · 02:05V. Khamurda1.67111110113T. Ponomarenko2.10771261LSep 23 · 24:05S. Skachenko1.611111113T. Ponomarenko2.208340WSep 22 · 23:05T. Ponomarenko2.7511125113S. Abalmaz1.404101191LSep 22 · 22:05O. Naida1.44711811123T. Ponomarenko2.63118117102LSep 22 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.611111113T. Ponomarenko2.209870LSep 22 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.501113113T. Ponomarenko2.5051140LSep 22 · 01:25V. Khamurda1.911111113T. Ponomarenko1.808540LSep 21 · 23:25S. Skachenko1.61111199153T. Ponomarenko2.20361111132LSep 21 · 21:25O. Naida1.44931215113T. Ponomarenko2.631111101362WSep 16 · 03:05T. Ponomarenko2.25117911113S. Skachenko1.5781111872
R. Gnoevoy10
WSep 23 · 02:35R. Gnoevoy2.1081111113S. Abalmaz1.67118981LSep 23 · 24:35O. Naida2.00711119123R. Gnoevoy1.73118611102WSep 22 · 22:35S. Skachenko1.9191214101R. Gnoevoy1.80111412123LSep 22 · 21:35V. Khamurda1.67111210113R. Gnoevoy2.109101271WSep 22 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.611111113T. Ponomarenko2.209870WSep 22 · 01:55O. Naida2.10131310872R. Gnoevoy1.6711111211113LSep 22 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy2.1091050S. Abalmaz1.671112113WSep 21 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.6711126682R. Gnoevoy2.109101111113WSep 21 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.911111113S. Skachenko1.807390WSep 18 · 03:25R. Gnoevoy2.20114811113V. Khamurda1.6161111792
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