TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Skachenko vs Roman Gnoevoy 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Serhii Skachenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911121414121012––
Roman Gnoevoy
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeSerhii Skachenko to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Skachenko above · Roman Gnoevoy below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 94 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Serhii Skachenko at 54.7%
94 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Skachenko 8–9 Roman Gnoevoy Serhii Skachenko has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:06What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Gnoevoy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-9 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skachenko 1622 vs Gnoevoy 1529
Skachenko
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skachenko 80% vs Gnoevoy 60%
Skachenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skachenko 60% vs Gnoevoy 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skachenko +3 · Gnoevoy -1
Skachenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skachenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkachenko 1.91 / Gnoevoy 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skachenko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13173520
Skachenko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 62 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back15% 16 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 76
Gnoevoy1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 71 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it75% 48 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkachenko5wins
AwayGnoevoy5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkachenko62.5%5 of 8
AwayGnoevoyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skachenko8Gnoevoy2n = 10Skachenko took 8 of 10
S2Skachenko3Gnoevoy7n = 10Gnoevoy took 7 of 10
S3Skachenko3Gnoevoy7n = 10Gnoevoy took 7 of 10
S4Skachenko6Gnoevoy3n = 9Skachenko took 6 of 9
S5Skachenko1Gnoevoy2n = 3Gnoevoy took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkachenkoGnoevoyS − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.440.1+0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkachenkoGnoevoyBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 318 vs 408 / 81842.1%49.9%134 / 318 vs 408 / 818Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoSkachenko 1.91/Gnoevoy 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gnoevoy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 22:25S. Skachenko197390R. Gnoevoy331111113
WSep 15 · 21:35S. Skachenko44111111113R. Gnoevoy28613271
LSep 14 · 23:25S. Skachenko47119116102R. Gnoevoy47511811123
WSep 8 · 13:55S. Skachenko3911115123R. Gnoevoy358611101
LSep 8 · 04:25S. Skachenko4413381192R. Gnoevoy511111117113
LSep 2 · 03:55S. Skachenko344111181R. Gnoevoy4311813113
WAug 28 · 14:05S. Skachenko48117811113R. Gnoevoy4451111982
WAug 27 · 22:25S. Skachenko4011126113R. Gnoevoy314101161
LAug 11 · 14:55S. Skachenko34117971R. Gnoevoy4071111113
WAug 10 · 23:25S. Skachenko55111117163R. Gnoevoy4971315141
S. Skachenko10
WSep 22 · 21:05S. Skachenko1.809111110113S. Abalmaz1.9111591282WSep 22 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.919790WSep 22 · 02:25V. Khamurda2.001210561S. Skachenko1.73101211113LSep 22 · 24:25O. Naida2.631113113S. Skachenko1.4451170WSep 21 · 23:25S. Skachenko1.61111199153T. Ponomarenko2.20361111132LSep 21 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.911111113S. Skachenko1.807390LSep 16 · 03:05T. Ponomarenko2.25117911113S. Skachenko1.5781111872WSep 16 · 02:05S. Skachenko1.501111113O. Naida2.506850WSep 16 · 01:05S. Skachenko1.831111113V. Khamurda1.837980LSep 15 · 23:35S. Skachenko1.8311891472S. Abalmaz1.838111112113
R. Gnoevoy10
LSep 22 · 21:35V. Khamurda1.67111210113R. Gnoevoy2.109101271WSep 22 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.611111113T. Ponomarenko2.209870WSep 22 · 01:55O. Naida2.10131310872R. Gnoevoy1.6711111211113LSep 22 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy2.1091050S. Abalmaz1.671112113WSep 21 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.6711126682R. Gnoevoy2.109101111113WSep 21 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.911111113S. Skachenko1.807390WSep 18 · 03:25R. Gnoevoy2.20114811113V. Khamurda1.6161111792LSep 18 · 01:55R. Gnoevoy1.57741141K. Hrynenko2.2511115113LSep 18 · 24:25R. Gnoevoy1.73721271O. Naida2.00111110113LSep 17 · 22:55R. Gnoevoy2.005780D. Derevynskyi1.731111113
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