TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Naida vs Serhii Skachenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Oleksandr Naida
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151311117––––
Serhii Skachenko
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:25 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Skachenko to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Naida above · Serhii Skachenko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 58 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Serhii Skachenko at 66.5%
58 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Naida 6–12 Serhii Skachenko Oleksandr Naida has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:25What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Skachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-12 in 18
Skachenko
Wrong
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Naida 1550 vs Skachenko 1604
Skachenko
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Naida 60% vs Skachenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naida 60% vs Skachenko 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Naida +2 · Skachenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Skachenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Naida form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaida 2.63 / Skachenko 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Skachenko)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13168661
Naida2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 73 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back27% 28 of 103
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 52
Skachenko1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 28 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it61% 20 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNaida3wins
AwaySkachenko7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSkachenko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNaida25%1 of 4
AwaySkachenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Naida4Skachenko6n = 10Skachenko took 6 of 10
S2Naida5Skachenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Naida4Skachenko6n = 10Skachenko took 6 of 10
S4Naida2Skachenko6n = 8Skachenko took 6 of 8
S5Naida1Skachenko2n = 3Skachenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNaidaSkachenkoN − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.240.4−5.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaidaSkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime480 / 930 vs 131 / 31451.6%41.7%480 / 930 vs 131 / 314Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoNaida 2.63/Skachenko 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Naida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 02:05O. Naida196850S. Skachenko331111113
LSep 14 · 22:25O. Naida154650S. Skachenko331111113
WAug 28 · 15:35O. Naida514111114113S. Skachenko4811591672
WAug 27 · 23:25O. Naida4181111113S. Skachenko33117871
LAug 18 · 22:05O. Naida29112791S. Skachenko4181111113
LAug 18 · 24:55O. Naida31311981S. Skachenko3711411113
WAug 11 · 17:55O. Naida4111118113S. Skachenko37891191
LAug 10 · 22:25O. Naida48101111882S. Skachenko48127711113
LAug 5 · 03:35O. Naida3811411572S. Skachenko51911911113
LAug 4 · 24:25O. Naida391181191S. Skachenko4381113113
O. Naida10
WSep 21 · 22:55O. Naida2.6311411113S. Abalmaz1.44511621WSep 21 · 21:25O. Naida1.44931215113T. Ponomarenko2.631111101362LSep 18 · 04:25O. Naida2.00101150D. Derevynskyi1.731213113LSep 18 · 02:25V. Khamurda1.73129611113O. Naida2.00101111792WSep 18 · 24:25R. Gnoevoy1.73721271O. Naida2.00111110113WSep 17 · 23:25O. Naida2.7581111113S. Abalmaz1.40118991WSep 17 · 22:25K. Hrynenko1.83671181O. Naida1.8311118113LSep 16 · 04:05O. Naida2.10611771R. Gnoevoy1.6711911113LSep 16 · 02:05S. Skachenko1.501111113O. Naida2.506850WSep 16 · 24:05T. Ponomarenko2.385440O. Naida1.531111113
S. Skachenko10
WSep 21 · 23:25S. Skachenko1.61111199153T. Ponomarenko2.20361111132LSep 21 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.911111113S. Skachenko1.807390LSep 16 · 03:05T. Ponomarenko2.25117911113S. Skachenko1.5781111872WSep 16 · 02:05S. Skachenko1.501111113O. Naida2.506850WSep 16 · 01:05S. Skachenko1.831111113V. Khamurda1.837980LSep 15 · 23:35S. Skachenko1.8311891472S. Abalmaz1.838111112113WSep 15 · 21:35S. Skachenko1.83111111113R. Gnoevoy1.83613271WSep 15 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.831381112113S. Abalmaz1.83111161492WSep 15 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.73117116102S. Skachenko2.00611311123WSep 15 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.83111181282S. Skachenko1.837131110113
Upcoming Matches
O. Naida
S. Skachenko
Sep 22 · 02:25S. Skachenko1.73V. Khamurda2.00—Sep 22 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.80S. Abalmaz1.91—Sep 22 · 21:05S. Skachenko1.80S. Abalmaz1.91—Sep 22 · 22:35S. Skachenko1.91R. Gnoevoy1.80—Sep 23 · 24:05S. Skachenko1.61T. Ponomarenko2.20—Sep 23 · 01:35S. Skachenko1.44O. Naida2.63—Sep 23 · 03:05S. Skachenko1.73V. Khamurda2.00—
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