TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142023
Played Sep 18Finished
Roman Gnoevoy
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7112111210711––
Oleksandr Naida
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Gnoevoy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Gnoevoy above · Oleksandr Naida below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Roman Gnoevoy at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Roman Gnoevoy 120–122 Oleksandr Naida Roman Gnoevoy has won 120 of their 242 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:22What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Gnoevoy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
120-122 in 242
Naida
Correct
gap of 2 in 242, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gnoevoy 1506 vs Naida 1543
Naida
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gnoevoy 40% vs Naida 60%
Naida
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gnoevoy 50% vs Naida 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gnoevoy -2 · Naida +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gnoevoy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gnoevoy form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGnoevoy 1.73 / Naida 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gnoevoy)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13142023
Gnoevoy1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 72 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it76% 50 of 66
Naida2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 72 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back27% 27 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGnoevoy9wins
AwayNaida1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGnoevoy leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGnoevoy100%7 of 7
AwayNaida33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gnoevoy7Naida3n = 10Gnoevoy took 7 of 10
S2Gnoevoy7Naida3n = 10Gnoevoy took 7 of 10
S3Gnoevoy6Naida4n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S4Gnoevoy4Naida2n = 6Gnoevoy took 4 of 6
S5Gnoevoy3Naida0n = 3Gnoevoy took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGnoevoyNaidaG − NBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.936.5+5.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGnoevoyNaidaBasisWin rate · lifetime403 / 811 vs 481 / 93149.7%51.7%403 / 811 vs 481 / 931Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GnoevoyGnoevoy 1.73/Naida 2.00
Miss
What we said
54%
Gnoevoy · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Naida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 04:05R. Gnoevoy4211911113O. Naida31611771
LSep 15 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy2261060O. Naida341112113
WSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy4751118133O. Naida4611816111
WSep 1 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy351111133O. Naida2696110
WAug 31 · 01:55R. Gnoevoy541114711113O. Naida50812111362
WAug 28 · 19:35R. Gnoevoy4213117113O. Naida351141191
WAug 28 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy361111143O. Naida2594120
WAug 14 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy56139911143O. Naida541111119122
WAug 11 · 16:55R. Gnoevoy505111112113O. Naida4211471462
WAug 11 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy351113113O. Naida2261150
R. Gnoevoy10
LSep 17 · 22:55R. Gnoevoy2.005780D. Derevynskyi1.731111113LSep 17 · 21:25R. Gnoevoy2.10119121172S. Abalmaz1.67911145113WSep 16 · 04:05O. Naida2.10611771R. Gnoevoy1.6711911113WSep 16 · 02:35R. Gnoevoy2.001111113V. Khamurda1.736690LSep 16 · 24:35S. Abalmaz1.671111113R. Gnoevoy2.108990WSep 15 · 22:35T. Ponomarenko2.00531181R. Gnoevoy1.7311116113LSep 15 · 21:35S. Skachenko1.83111111113R. Gnoevoy1.83613271LSep 15 · 03:55O. Naida1.831112113R. Gnoevoy1.8361060WSep 15 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.73711881R. Gnoevoy2.0011911113WSep 15 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi1.80911811122R. Gnoevoy1.91118118143
O. Naida10
WSep 17 · 23:25O. Naida2.7581111113S. Abalmaz1.40118991WSep 17 · 22:25K. Hrynenko1.83671181O. Naida1.8311118113LSep 16 · 04:05O. Naida2.10611771R. Gnoevoy1.6711911113LSep 16 · 02:05S. Skachenko1.501111113O. Naida2.506850WSep 16 · 24:05T. Ponomarenko2.385440O. Naida1.531111113WSep 15 · 23:05O. Naida1.831111812113V. Khamurda1.8346111492WSep 15 · 22:05S. Abalmaz1.44891181O. Naida2.6311113113WSep 15 · 03:55O. Naida1.831112113R. Gnoevoy1.8361060LSep 15 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.831111113O. Naida1.836990LSep 15 · 24:55O. Naida2.6371270S. Abalmaz1.441114113
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