TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Roman Gnoevoy vs Serhii Skachenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Roman Gnoevoy
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117113119––––
Serhii Skachenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:55 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeSerhii Skachenko to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Gnoevoy above · Serhii Skachenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 52 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Serhii Skachenko at 54.7%
52 points played in total.
H2H Roman Gnoevoy 8–8 Serhii Skachenko Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:55What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Skachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gnoevoy 1498 vs Skachenko 1615
Skachenko
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gnoevoy 20% vs Skachenko 60%
Skachenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gnoevoy 40% vs Skachenko 70%
Skachenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gnoevoy +1 · Skachenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Skachenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gnoevoy form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGnoevoy 1.91 / Skachenko 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Skachenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13168808
Gnoevoy1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 85 of 180
Down 0–1, comes back24% 22 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 55
Skachenko1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 16)
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite48% won 28 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it61% 20 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGnoevoy4wins
AwaySkachenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSkachenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGnoevoyn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwaySkachenko66.7%6 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gnoevoy1Skachenko9n = 10Skachenko took 9 of 10
S2Gnoevoy6Skachenko4n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S3Gnoevoy6Skachenko4n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S4Gnoevoy3Skachenko6n = 9Skachenko took 6 of 9
S5Gnoevoy2Skachenko1n = 3Gnoevoy took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGnoevoySkachenkoG − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match39.341.8−2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGnoevoySkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime404 / 813 vs 130 / 31349.7%41.5%404 / 813 vs 130 / 313Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoGnoevoy 1.91/Skachenko 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Gnoevoy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 21:35R. Gnoevoy28613271S. Skachenko44111111113
WSep 14 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy47511811123S. Skachenko47119116102
LSep 8 · 13:55R. Gnoevoy358611101S. Skachenko3911115123
WSep 8 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy511111117113S. Skachenko4413381192
WSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy4311813113S. Skachenko344111181
LAug 28 · 14:05R. Gnoevoy4451111982S. Skachenko48117811113
LAug 27 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy314101161S. Skachenko4011126113
WAug 11 · 14:55R. Gnoevoy4071111113S. Skachenko34117971
LAug 10 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy4971315141S. Skachenko55111117163
LAug 4 · 22:05R. Gnoevoy257990S. Skachenko331111113
R. Gnoevoy10
WSep 18 · 03:25R. Gnoevoy2.20114811113V. Khamurda1.6161111792LSep 18 · 01:55R. Gnoevoy1.57741141K. Hrynenko2.2511115113LSep 18 · 24:25R. Gnoevoy1.73721271O. Naida2.00111110113LSep 17 · 22:55R. Gnoevoy2.005780D. Derevynskyi1.731111113LSep 17 · 21:25R. Gnoevoy2.10119121172S. Abalmaz1.67911145113WSep 16 · 04:05O. Naida2.10611771R. Gnoevoy1.6711911113WSep 16 · 02:35R. Gnoevoy2.001111113V. Khamurda1.736690LSep 16 · 24:35S. Abalmaz1.671111113R. Gnoevoy2.108990WSep 15 · 22:35T. Ponomarenko2.00531181R. Gnoevoy1.7311116113LSep 15 · 21:35S. Skachenko1.83111111113R. Gnoevoy1.83613271
S. Skachenko10
LSep 16 · 03:05T. Ponomarenko2.25117911113S. Skachenko1.5781111872WSep 16 · 02:05S. Skachenko1.501111113O. Naida2.506850WSep 16 · 01:05S. Skachenko1.831111113V. Khamurda1.837980LSep 15 · 23:35S. Skachenko1.8311891472S. Abalmaz1.838111112113WSep 15 · 21:35S. Skachenko1.83111111113R. Gnoevoy1.83613271WSep 15 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.831381112113S. Abalmaz1.83111161492WSep 15 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.73117116102S. Skachenko2.00611311123WSep 15 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.83111181282S. Skachenko1.837131110113LSep 14 · 23:25S. Skachenko1.83119116102R. Gnoevoy1.83511811123WSep 14 · 22:25O. Naida2.104650S. Skachenko1.671111113
Upcoming Matches
R. Gnoevoy
Sep 22 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy2.10S. Abalmaz1.67—Sep 22 · 01:55R. Gnoevoy1.67O. Naida2.10—Sep 22 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.61T. Ponomarenko2.20—Sep 22 · 21:35R. Gnoevoy2.10V. Khamurda1.67—Sep 22 · 22:35R. Gnoevoy1.91S. Skachenko1.80—Sep 23 · 24:35R. Gnoevoy1.67O. Naida2.10—Sep 23 · 02:35R. Gnoevoy2.10S. Abalmaz1.67—Sep 23 · 04:05R. Gnoevoy1.61T. Ponomarenko2.20—
S. Skachenko
Sep 22 · 24:25S. Skachenko1.44O. Naida2.63—Sep 22 · 02:25S. Skachenko1.73V. Khamurda2.00—Sep 22 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.80S. Abalmaz1.91—Sep 22 · 21:05S. Skachenko1.80S. Abalmaz1.91—Sep 22 · 22:35S. Skachenko1.80R. Gnoevoy1.91—Sep 23 · 24:05S. Skachenko1.61T. Ponomarenko2.20—Sep 23 · 01:35S. Skachenko1.44O. Naida2.63—Sep 23 · 03:05S. Skachenko1.73V. Khamurda2.00—
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