TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13132007
Played Sep 16Finished
Tymur Ponomarenko
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118711911118117
Serhii Skachenko
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:53 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Skachenko to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTymur Ponomarenko above · Serhii Skachenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Serhii Skachenko at 60.9%
94 points played in total.
H2H Tymur Ponomarenko 5–6 Serhii Skachenko Tymur Ponomarenko has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:53What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Skachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1488 vs Skachenko 1608
Skachenko
Wrong
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Skachenko 80%
Skachenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Skachenko 80%
Skachenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +1 · Skachenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Skachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skachenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.25 / Skachenko 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Skachenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13132007
Ponomarenko2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 32 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 33
Skachenko1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite48% won 27 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it59% 19 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko4wins
AwaySkachenko6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkachenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko66.7%2 of 3
AwaySkachenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko3Skachenko7n = 10Skachenko took 7 of 10
S2Ponomarenko4Skachenko6n = 10Skachenko took 6 of 10
S3Ponomarenko4Skachenko6n = 10Skachenko took 6 of 10
S4Ponomarenko3Skachenko5n = 8Skachenko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoSkachenkoP − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.742.4−3.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoSkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 383 vs 130 / 31354.6%41.5%209 / 383 vs 130 / 313Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoPonomarenko 2.25/Skachenko 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 03:05T. Ponomarenko49117911113S. Skachenko4581111872
WSep 8 · 19:25T. Ponomarenko48131114103S. Skachenko411561281
LSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko3388170S. Skachenko411111193
LAug 28 · 12:35T. Ponomarenko323115131S. Skachenko4611911153
LAug 19 · 24:35T. Ponomarenko3810711101S. Skachenko4112116123
WAug 17 · 22:55T. Ponomarenko51131197113S. Skachenko50119111182
LAug 11 · 16:25T. Ponomarenko31114881S. Skachenko4291111113
WAug 11 · 24:25T. Ponomarenko53131811113S. Skachenko421516561
LAug 5 · 01:35T. Ponomarenko389511131S. Skachenko4311116153
LJul 16 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko148330S. Skachenko331111113
T. Ponomarenko10
WSep 16 · 01:35T. Ponomarenko2.50119117113S. Abalmaz1.5091191192LSep 16 · 24:05T. Ponomarenko2.385440O. Naida1.531111113LSep 15 · 22:35T. Ponomarenko2.00531181R. Gnoevoy1.7311116113WSep 15 · 21:05T. Ponomarenko1.911111133V. Khamurda1.8098110WSep 11 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.508590T. Ponomarenko2.501111113WSep 11 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.4481118582T. Ponomarenko2.631181611113LSep 10 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi1.731111133T. Ponomarenko2.0087110LSep 10 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.83391111113T. Ponomarenko1.8311118562WSep 8 · 19:25T. Ponomarenko2.38131114103S. Skachenko1.531561281WSep 8 · 17:55T. Ponomarenko2.00111175113V. Khamurda1.7388111192
S. Skachenko10
WSep 16 · 02:05S. Skachenko1.501111113O. Naida2.506850WSep 16 · 01:05S. Skachenko1.831111113V. Khamurda1.837980LSep 15 · 23:35S. Skachenko1.8311891472S. Abalmaz1.838111112113WSep 15 · 21:35S. Skachenko1.83111111113R. Gnoevoy1.83613271WSep 15 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.831381112113S. Abalmaz1.83111161492WSep 15 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.73117116102S. Skachenko2.00611311123WSep 15 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.83111181282S. Skachenko1.837131110113LSep 14 · 23:25S. Skachenko1.83119116102R. Gnoevoy1.83511811123WSep 14 · 22:25O. Naida2.104650S. Skachenko1.671111113LSep 8 · 19:25T. Ponomarenko2.38131114103S. Skachenko1.531561281
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