TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131913
Played Sep 16Finished
Tymur Ponomarenko
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119911119711119
Spartak Abalmaz
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:34 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTymur Ponomarenko above · Spartak Abalmaz below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 98 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 66.9%
98 points played in total.
H2H Tymur Ponomarenko 6–17 Spartak Abalmaz Tymur Ponomarenko has won 6 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:34What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Abalmaz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-17 in 23
Abalmaz
Wrong
gap of 11 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1456 vs Abalmaz 1614
Abalmaz
Wrong
both rated, 158 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Abalmaz 40%
Ponomarenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 50% vs Abalmaz 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -2 · Abalmaz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Abalmaz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abalmaz form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.50 / Abalmaz 1.50
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Abalmaz)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13131913
Ponomarenko2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 32 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 33
Abalmaz1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 159 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it96% 75 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it77% 115 of 149
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko4wins
AwayAbalmaz6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAbalmaz leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko66.7%4 of 6
AwayAbalmaz100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko6Abalmaz4n = 10Ponomarenko took 6 of 10
S2Ponomarenko3Abalmaz7n = 10Abalmaz took 7 of 10
S3Ponomarenko2Abalmaz8n = 10Abalmaz took 8 of 10
S4Ponomarenko3Abalmaz3n = 6split evenly
S5Ponomarenko2Abalmaz1n = 3Ponomarenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoAbalmazP − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.640.1−4.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoAbalmazBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 381 vs 424 / 83454.3%50.8%207 / 381 vs 424 / 834Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazPonomarenko 2.50/Abalmaz 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.9%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko571181611113S. Abalmaz5081118582
LSep 8 · 16:25T. Ponomarenko28113681S. Abalmaz3741111113
LSep 3 · 23:25T. Ponomarenko2255120S. Abalmaz361111143
WSep 2 · 04:25T. Ponomarenko351113113S. Abalmaz2671180
LSep 1 · 02:25T. Ponomarenko227690S. Abalmaz331111113
LAug 31 · 04:25T. Ponomarenko401191191S. Abalmaz4313118113
WAug 28 · 19:05T. Ponomarenko3911134113S. Abalmaz388111181
LAug 26 · 01:05T. Ponomarenko45111329102S. Abalmaz549111111123
WAug 21 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko44117311123S. Abalmaz50911119102
LAug 19 · 02:35T. Ponomarenko2410770S. Abalmaz341211113
T. Ponomarenko10
LSep 16 · 24:05T. Ponomarenko2.385440O. Naida1.531111113LSep 15 · 22:35T. Ponomarenko2.00531181R. Gnoevoy1.7311116113WSep 15 · 21:05T. Ponomarenko1.911111133V. Khamurda1.8098110WSep 11 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.508590T. Ponomarenko2.501111113WSep 11 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.4481118582T. Ponomarenko2.631181611113LSep 10 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi1.731111133T. Ponomarenko2.0087110LSep 10 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.83391111113T. Ponomarenko1.8311118562WSep 8 · 19:25T. Ponomarenko2.38131114103S. Skachenko1.531561281WSep 8 · 17:55T. Ponomarenko2.00111175113V. Khamurda1.7388111192LSep 8 · 16:25T. Ponomarenko2.63113681S. Abalmaz1.4441111113
S. Abalmaz10
WSep 16 · 24:35S. Abalmaz1.671111113R. Gnoevoy2.108990WSep 15 · 23:35S. Skachenko1.8311891472S. Abalmaz1.838111112113LSep 15 · 22:05S. Abalmaz1.44891181O. Naida2.6311113113LSep 15 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.831381112113S. Abalmaz1.83111161492LSep 15 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.73711881R. Gnoevoy2.0011911113WSep 15 · 24:55O. Naida2.6371270S. Abalmaz1.441114113WSep 14 · 22:55V. Khamurda2.5011991192S. Abalmaz1.50211118113WSep 14 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi1.8011113111S. Abalmaz1.9181311133LSep 11 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.4481118582T. Ponomarenko2.631181611113WSep 8 · 16:25T. Ponomarenko2.63113681S. Abalmaz1.4441111113
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