TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Serhii Skachenko vs Tymur Ponomarenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Serhii Skachenko
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1131169119111513
Tymur Ponomarenko
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:44 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Skachenko to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Skachenko above · Tymur Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 99 set 5, 15-13 — our read held Serhii Skachenko at 60.9%
99 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Skachenko 6–5 Tymur Ponomarenko Tymur Ponomarenko has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:44What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Skachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skachenko 1597 vs Ponomarenko 1477
Skachenko
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skachenko 40% vs Ponomarenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skachenko 60% vs Ponomarenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skachenko -2 · Ponomarenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Skachenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skachenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkachenko 1.61 / Ponomarenko 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Skachenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13168769
Skachenko1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 28 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it61% 20 of 33
Ponomarenko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 35 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkachenko6wins
AwayPonomarenko4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSkachenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkachenko71.4%5 of 7
AwayPonomarenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skachenko7Ponomarenko3n = 10Skachenko took 7 of 10
S2Skachenko6Ponomarenko4n = 10Skachenko took 6 of 10
S3Skachenko6Ponomarenko4n = 10Skachenko took 6 of 10
S4Skachenko5Ponomarenko2n = 7Skachenko took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkachenkoPonomarenkoS − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.637.7+4.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkachenkoPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 313 vs 209 / 38441.5%54.4%130 / 313 vs 209 / 384Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoSkachenko 1.61/Ponomarenko 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 16 · 03:05S. Skachenko4581111872T. Ponomarenko49117911113
WSep 2 · 02:55S. Skachenko411111193T. Ponomarenko3388170
WAug 28 · 12:35S. Skachenko4611911153T. Ponomarenko323115131
WAug 19 · 24:35S. Skachenko4112116123T. Ponomarenko3810711101
LAug 17 · 22:55S. Skachenko50119111182T. Ponomarenko51131197113
WAug 11 · 16:25S. Skachenko4291111113T. Ponomarenko31114881
LAug 11 · 24:25S. Skachenko421516561T. Ponomarenko53131811113
WAug 5 · 01:35S. Skachenko4311116153T. Ponomarenko389511131
WJul 16 · 23:55S. Skachenko331111113T. Ponomarenko148330
S. Skachenko10
LSep 22 · 24:25O. Naida2.631113113S. Skachenko1.4451170LSep 21 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy1.911111113S. Skachenko1.807390LSep 16 · 03:05T. Ponomarenko2.25117911113S. Skachenko1.5781111872WSep 16 · 02:05S. Skachenko1.501111113O. Naida2.506850WSep 16 · 01:05S. Skachenko1.831111113V. Khamurda1.837980LSep 15 · 23:35S. Skachenko1.8311891472S. Abalmaz1.838111112113WSep 15 · 21:35S. Skachenko1.83111111113R. Gnoevoy1.83613271WSep 15 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.831381112113S. Abalmaz1.83111161492WSep 15 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.73117116102S. Skachenko2.00611311123WSep 15 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.83111181282S. Skachenko1.837131110113
T. Ponomarenko10
LSep 21 · 21:25O. Naida1.44931215113T. Ponomarenko2.631111101362WSep 16 · 03:05T. Ponomarenko2.25117911113S. Skachenko1.5781111872WSep 16 · 01:35T. Ponomarenko2.50119117113S. Abalmaz1.5091191192LSep 16 · 24:05T. Ponomarenko2.385440O. Naida1.531111113LSep 15 · 22:35T. Ponomarenko2.00531181R. Gnoevoy1.7311116113WSep 15 · 21:05T. Ponomarenko1.911111133V. Khamurda1.8098110WSep 11 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.508590T. Ponomarenko2.501111113WSep 11 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.4481118582T. Ponomarenko2.631181611113LSep 10 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi1.731111133T. Ponomarenko2.0087110LSep 10 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.83391111113T. Ponomarenko1.8311118562
Upcoming Matches
S. Skachenko
Sep 22 · 02:25S. Skachenko1.73V. Khamurda2.00—Sep 22 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.80S. Abalmaz1.91—Sep 22 · 21:05S. Skachenko1.80S. Abalmaz1.91—Sep 22 · 22:35S. Skachenko1.91R. Gnoevoy1.80—Sep 23 · 24:05S. Skachenko1.61T. Ponomarenko2.20—Sep 23 · 01:35S. Skachenko1.44O. Naida2.63—Sep 23 · 03:05S. Skachenko1.73V. Khamurda2.00—
T. Ponomarenko
Sep 22 · 01:25T. Ponomarenko1.80V. Khamurda1.91—Sep 22 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.50S. Abalmaz1.50—Sep 22 · 03:55T. Ponomarenko2.20R. Gnoevoy1.61—Sep 22 · 22:05T. Ponomarenko2.63O. Naida1.44—Sep 22 · 23:05T. Ponomarenko2.50S. Abalmaz1.50—Sep 23 · 24:05T. Ponomarenko2.20S. Skachenko1.61—Sep 23 · 02:05T. Ponomarenko1.80V. Khamurda1.91—Sep 23 · 04:05T. Ponomarenko2.20R. Gnoevoy1.61—
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