TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Oleksandr Naida vs Tymur Ponomarenko 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Oleksandr Naida
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
91131112101513116
Tymur Ponomarenko
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:15 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Naida to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Naida above · Tymur Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 101 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandr Naida at 66.1%
101 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Naida 15–6 Tymur Ponomarenko Tymur Ponomarenko has won 6 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:15What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Naida
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-6 in 21
Naida
Correct
gap of 9 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Naida 1528 vs Ponomarenko 1487
Naida
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Naida 60% vs Ponomarenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Naida 60% vs Ponomarenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Naida -2 · Ponomarenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Naida)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNaida 1.44 / Ponomarenko 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Naida)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13168910
Naida1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Sep 18)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 76 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it74% 58 of 78
Ponomarenko2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 6 days ago (Sep 16)
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 35 of 98
Down 0–1, comes back15% 8 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNaida9wins
AwayPonomarenko1wins
5 of 10 to a deciderNaida leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNaida100%6 of 6
AwayPonomarenko25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Naida6Ponomarenko4n = 10Naida took 6 of 10
S2Naida7Ponomarenko3n = 10Naida took 7 of 10
S3Naida7Ponomarenko3n = 10Naida took 7 of 10
S4Naida5Ponomarenko1n = 6Naida took 5 of 6
S5Naida4Ponomarenko1n = 5Naida took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNaidaPonomarenkoN − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.133.6+7.5per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNaidaPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 928 vs 209 / 38351.5%54.6%478 / 928 vs 209 / 383Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NaidaNaida 1.44/Ponomarenko 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Naida · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Naida won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 24:05O. Naida331111113T. Ponomarenko135440
LSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida3991131152T. Ponomarenko42117112113
WAug 31 · 23:55O. Naida51117812133T. Ponomarenko529111110112
WAug 31 · 24:55O. Naida331111113T. Ponomarenko218850
WAug 28 · 14:35O. Naida49712118113T. Ponomarenko44111031192
WAug 25 · 23:35O. Naida331111113T. Ponomarenko229670
WAug 20 · 23:25O. Naida52981311113T. Ponomarenko48111111962
WAug 19 · 04:05O. Naida49116912113T. Ponomarenko38411111022
WAug 18 · 01:55O. Naida3941113113T. Ponomarenko371181171
WAug 14 · 03:55O. Naida331111113T. Ponomarenko195950
O. Naida10
LSep 18 · 04:25O. Naida2.00101150D. Derevynskyi1.731213113LSep 18 · 02:25V. Khamurda1.73129611113O. Naida2.00101111792WSep 18 · 24:25R. Gnoevoy1.73721271O. Naida2.00111110113WSep 17 · 23:25O. Naida2.7581111113S. Abalmaz1.40118991WSep 17 · 22:25K. Hrynenko1.83671181O. Naida1.8311118113LSep 16 · 04:05O. Naida2.10611771R. Gnoevoy1.6711911113LSep 16 · 02:05S. Skachenko1.501111113O. Naida2.506850WSep 16 · 24:05T. Ponomarenko2.385440O. Naida1.531111113WSep 15 · 23:05O. Naida1.831111812113V. Khamurda1.8346111492WSep 15 · 22:05S. Abalmaz1.44891181O. Naida2.6311113113
T. Ponomarenko10
WSep 16 · 03:05T. Ponomarenko2.25117911113S. Skachenko1.5781111872WSep 16 · 01:35T. Ponomarenko2.50119117113S. Abalmaz1.5091191192LSep 16 · 24:05T. Ponomarenko2.385440O. Naida1.531111113LSep 15 · 22:35T. Ponomarenko2.00531181R. Gnoevoy1.7311116113WSep 15 · 21:05T. Ponomarenko1.911111133V. Khamurda1.8098110WSep 11 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.508590T. Ponomarenko2.501111113WSep 11 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.4481118582T. Ponomarenko2.631181611113LSep 10 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi1.731111133T. Ponomarenko2.0087110LSep 10 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.83391111113T. Ponomarenko1.8311118562WSep 8 · 19:25T. Ponomarenko2.38131114103S. Skachenko1.531561281
Upcoming Matches
O. Naida
Sep 22 · 24:25O. Naida2.63S. Skachenko1.44—Sep 22 · 01:55O. Naida2.10R. Gnoevoy1.67—Sep 22 · 03:25O. Naida1.83V. Khamurda1.83—Sep 22 · 22:05O. Naida1.44T. Ponomarenko2.63—Sep 22 · 23:35O. Naida1.83V. Khamurda1.83—Sep 23 · 24:35O. Naida2.10R. Gnoevoy1.67—Sep 23 · 01:35O. Naida2.63S. Skachenko1.44—Sep 23 · 03:35O. Naida2.63S. Abalmaz1.44—
T. Ponomarenko
Sep 21 · 23:25T. Ponomarenko2.20S. Skachenko1.61—Sep 22 · 01:25T. Ponomarenko1.80V. Khamurda1.91—Sep 22 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.50S. Abalmaz1.50—Sep 22 · 03:55T. Ponomarenko2.20R. Gnoevoy1.61—Sep 22 · 22:05T. Ponomarenko2.63O. Naida1.44—Sep 22 · 23:05T. Ponomarenko2.50S. Abalmaz1.50—Sep 23 · 24:05T. Ponomarenko2.20S. Skachenko1.61—Sep 23 · 02:05T. Ponomarenko1.80V. Khamurda1.91—Sep 23 · 04:05T. Ponomarenko2.20R. Gnoevoy1.61—
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