TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Vitalii Khamurda vs Tymur Ponomarenko 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Vitalii Khamurda
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118115114––––
Tymur Ponomarenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii Khamurda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Khamurda above · Tymur Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 50 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Vitalii Khamurda at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Khamurda 12–12 Tymur Ponomarenko Dead even across their 24 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:05What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ponomarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-12 in 24
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khamurda 1560 vs Ponomarenko 1469
Khamurda
Correct
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khamurda 40% vs Ponomarenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khamurda 40% vs Ponomarenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khamurda -1 · Ponomarenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Khamurda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhamurda 1.91 / Ponomarenko 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Khamurda)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13168540
Khamurda1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 66 of 144
Down 0–1, comes back29% 26 of 89
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Ponomarenko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 131 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it93% 62 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it78% 86 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhamurda4wins
AwayPonomarenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhamurdan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPonomarenko62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khamurda2Ponomarenko8n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S2Khamurda4Ponomarenko6n = 10Ponomarenko took 6 of 10
S3Khamurda5Ponomarenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Khamurda4Ponomarenko3n = 7Khamurda took 4 of 7
S5Khamurda2Ponomarenko1n = 3Khamurda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhamurdaPonomarenkoK − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match36.237.4−1.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhamurdaPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime470 / 877 vs 209 / 38553.6%54.3%470 / 877 vs 209 / 385Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhamurdaKhamurda 1.91/Ponomarenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Khamurda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Khamurda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 21:05V. Khamurda2898110T. Ponomarenko351111133
WSep 10 · 21:25V. Khamurda45391111113T. Ponomarenko4111118562
LSep 8 · 17:55V. Khamurda4788111192T. Ponomarenko45111175113
WSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda4291111113T. Ponomarenko27118261
LSep 1 · 22:55V. Khamurda33711691T. Ponomarenko4211911113
WSep 1 · 03:25V. Khamurda48691111113T. Ponomarenko4411117782
WAug 30 · 21:55V. Khamurda331111113T. Ponomarenko219570
LAug 28 · 16:35V. Khamurda225890T. Ponomarenko331111113
LAug 26 · 03:05V. Khamurda28411761T. Ponomarenko4111811113
LAug 21 · 01:25V. Khamurda36147961T. Ponomarenko45121111113
V. Khamurda10
LSep 22 · 02:25V. Khamurda2.001210561S. Skachenko1.73101211113LSep 21 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.6711126682R. Gnoevoy2.109101111113WSep 21 · 21:55V. Khamurda2.251211113S. Abalmaz1.5710200LSep 18 · 03:25R. Gnoevoy2.20114811113V. Khamurda1.6161111792WSep 18 · 02:25V. Khamurda1.73129611113O. Naida2.00101111792LSep 18 · 01:25V. Khamurda2.38911137122S. Abalmaz1.531151111143LSep 17 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.807101261K. Hrynenko1.91111210113WSep 17 · 21:55V. Khamurda1.9181112113D. Derevynskyi1.801141081WSep 16 · 03:35S. Abalmaz1.53811951V. Khamurda2.3811911113LSep 16 · 02:35R. Gnoevoy2.001111113V. Khamurda1.736690
T. Ponomarenko10
LSep 21 · 23:25S. Skachenko1.61111199153T. Ponomarenko2.20361111132LSep 21 · 21:25O. Naida1.44931215113T. Ponomarenko2.631111101362WSep 16 · 03:05T. Ponomarenko2.25117911113S. Skachenko1.5781111872WSep 16 · 01:35T. Ponomarenko2.50119117113S. Abalmaz1.5091191192LSep 16 · 24:05T. Ponomarenko2.385440O. Naida1.531111113LSep 15 · 22:35T. Ponomarenko2.00531181R. Gnoevoy1.7311116113WSep 15 · 21:05T. Ponomarenko1.911111133V. Khamurda1.8098110WSep 11 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.508590T. Ponomarenko2.501111113WSep 11 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.4481118582T. Ponomarenko2.631181611113LSep 10 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi1.731111133T. Ponomarenko2.0087110
Upcoming Matches
V. Khamurda
T. Ponomarenko
Sep 22 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.50S. Abalmaz1.50—Sep 22 · 03:55T. Ponomarenko2.20R. Gnoevoy1.61—Sep 22 · 22:05T. Ponomarenko2.63O. Naida1.44—Sep 22 · 23:05T. Ponomarenko2.50S. Abalmaz1.50—Sep 23 · 24:05T. Ponomarenko2.20S. Skachenko1.61—Sep 23 · 02:05T. Ponomarenko2.00V. Khamurda1.73—Sep 23 · 04:05T. Ponomarenko2.20R. Gnoevoy1.61—
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