TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13131443
Played Sep 16Finished
Spartak Abalmaz
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811119911511––
Vitalii Khamurda
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSpartak Abalmaz above · Vitalii Khamurda below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 75 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 62.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Spartak Abalmaz 49–27 Vitalii Khamurda Vitalii Khamurda has won 27 of their 76 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:04What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Abalmaz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
49-27 in 76
Abalmaz
Wrong
gap of 22 in 76, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Abalmaz 1599 vs Khamurda 1557
Abalmaz
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Abalmaz 40% vs Khamurda 20%
Abalmaz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Abalmaz 60% vs Khamurda 40%
Abalmaz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Abalmaz -1 · Khamurda -4
Khamurda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Abalmaz) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khamurda form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAbalmaz 1.53 / Khamurda 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Abalmaz)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13131443
Abalmaz1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 159 of 266
Up 2–0, closes it96% 75 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it77% 115 of 149
Khamurda2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 66 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back29% 26 of 90
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAbalmaz4wins
AwayKhamurda6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKhamurda leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAbalmaz50%3 of 6
AwayKhamurda75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Abalmaz6Khamurda4n = 10Abalmaz took 6 of 10
S2Abalmaz2Khamurda8n = 10Khamurda took 8 of 10
S3Abalmaz8Khamurda2n = 10Abalmaz took 8 of 10
S4Abalmaz2Khamurda7n = 9Khamurda took 7 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricAbalmazKhamurdaA − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.341.7−4.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAbalmazKhamurdaBasisWin rate · lifetime424 / 835 vs 472 / 88750.8%53.2%424 / 835 vs 472 / 887Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazAbalmaz 1.53/Khamurda 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Khamurda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 22:55S. Abalmaz43211118113V. Khamurda4911991192
LSep 10 · 22:55S. Abalmaz32561381V. Khamurda44111111113
LSep 8 · 14:25S. Abalmaz26671211V. Khamurda43111110113
LSep 7 · 21:25S. Abalmaz331171231V. Khamurda4591114113
LSep 4 · 24:25S. Abalmaz33981151V. Khamurda4111118113
WSep 2 · 24:25S. Abalmaz331111113V. Khamurda279990
WSep 1 · 24:25S. Abalmaz3911512113V. Khamurda388111091
LAug 31 · 02:25S. Abalmaz35117981V. Khamurda4291111113
LAug 28 · 15:05S. Abalmaz561191312112V. Khamurda523111114133
WAug 27 · 21:55S. Abalmaz4312911113V. Khamurda361011781
S. Abalmaz10
LSep 16 · 01:35T. Ponomarenko2.50119117113S. Abalmaz1.5091191192WSep 16 · 24:35S. Abalmaz1.671111113R. Gnoevoy2.108990WSep 15 · 23:35S. Skachenko1.8311891472S. Abalmaz1.838111112113LSep 15 · 22:05S. Abalmaz1.44891181O. Naida2.6311113113LSep 15 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.831381112113S. Abalmaz1.83111161492LSep 15 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.73711881R. Gnoevoy2.0011911113WSep 15 · 24:55O. Naida2.6371270S. Abalmaz1.441114113WSep 14 · 22:55V. Khamurda2.5011991192S. Abalmaz1.50211118113WSep 14 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi1.8011113111S. Abalmaz1.9181311133WSep 11 · 04:25D. Derevynskyi1.73771191S. Abalmaz2.0011119113
V. Khamurda10
LSep 16 · 02:35R. Gnoevoy2.001111113V. Khamurda1.736690LSep 16 · 01:05S. Skachenko1.831111113V. Khamurda1.837980LSep 15 · 23:05O. Naida1.831111812113V. Khamurda1.8346111492LSep 15 · 21:05T. Ponomarenko1.911111133V. Khamurda1.8098110WSep 15 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.911111113D. Derevynskyi1.808890WSep 15 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.831111113O. Naida1.836990LSep 15 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.83111181282S. Skachenko1.837131110113LSep 14 · 22:55V. Khamurda2.5011991192S. Abalmaz1.50211118113WSep 14 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.7311811113R. Gnoevoy2.00711641WSep 11 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.73111376163R. Gnoevoy2.004111111142
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