TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Tymur Ponomarenko vs Spartak Abalmaz 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Tymur Ponomarenko
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1141210511119––
Spartak Abalmaz
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:26 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTymur Ponomarenko above · Spartak Abalmaz below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 66.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Tymur Ponomarenko 7–18 Spartak Abalmaz Tymur Ponomarenko has won 7 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:26What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Abalmaz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-18 in 25
Abalmaz
Wrong
gap of 11 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1430 vs Abalmaz 1563
Abalmaz
Wrong
both rated, 133 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 0% vs Abalmaz 40%
Abalmaz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 20% vs Abalmaz 40%
Abalmaz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -6 · Abalmaz -2
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Abalmaz) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abalmaz form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.75 / Abalmaz 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Abalmaz)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13173606
Ponomarenko2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 35 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Abalmaz1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 156 of 267
Up 2–0, closes it96% 76 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it77% 115 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko4wins
AwayAbalmaz6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAbalmaz leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko66.7%4 of 6
AwayAbalmaz100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko6Abalmaz4n = 10Ponomarenko took 6 of 10
S2Ponomarenko3Abalmaz7n = 10Abalmaz took 7 of 10
S3Ponomarenko3Abalmaz7n = 10Abalmaz took 7 of 10
S4Ponomarenko2Abalmaz4n = 6Abalmaz took 4 of 6
S5Ponomarenko2Abalmaz1n = 3Ponomarenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoAbalmazP − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.740.1−4.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoAbalmazBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 389 vs 420 / 83153.7%50.5%209 / 389 vs 420 / 831Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazPonomarenko 2.75/Abalmaz 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.7%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2051140S. Abalmaz351113113
WSep 16 · 01:35T. Ponomarenko49119117113S. Abalmaz4991191192
WSep 11 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko571181611113S. Abalmaz5081118582
LSep 8 · 16:25T. Ponomarenko28113681S. Abalmaz3741111113
LSep 3 · 23:25T. Ponomarenko2255120S. Abalmaz361111143
WSep 2 · 04:25T. Ponomarenko351113113S. Abalmaz2671180
LSep 1 · 02:25T. Ponomarenko227690S. Abalmaz331111113
LAug 31 · 04:25T. Ponomarenko401191191S. Abalmaz4313118113
WAug 28 · 19:05T. Ponomarenko3911134113S. Abalmaz388111181
LAug 26 · 01:05T. Ponomarenko45111329102S. Abalmaz549111111123
T. Ponomarenko10
LSep 23 · 24:05S. Skachenko1.611111113T. Ponomarenko2.208340LSep 22 · 22:05O. Naida1.44711811123T. Ponomarenko2.63118117102LSep 22 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.611111113T. Ponomarenko2.209870LSep 22 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.501113113T. Ponomarenko2.5051140LSep 22 · 01:25V. Khamurda1.911111113T. Ponomarenko1.808540LSep 21 · 23:25S. Skachenko1.61111199153T. Ponomarenko2.20361111132LSep 21 · 21:25O. Naida1.44931215113T. Ponomarenko2.631111101362WSep 16 · 03:05T. Ponomarenko2.25117911113S. Skachenko1.5781111872WSep 16 · 01:35T. Ponomarenko2.50119117113S. Abalmaz1.5091191192LSep 16 · 24:05T. Ponomarenko2.385440O. Naida1.531111113
S. Abalmaz10
LSep 22 · 21:05S. Skachenko1.809111110113S. Abalmaz1.9111591282LSep 22 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.801111113S. Abalmaz1.919790WSep 22 · 02:55S. Abalmaz1.501113113T. Ponomarenko2.5051140WSep 22 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy2.1091050S. Abalmaz1.671112113LSep 21 · 22:55O. Naida2.6311411113S. Abalmaz1.44511621LSep 21 · 21:55V. Khamurda2.251211113S. Abalmaz1.5710200WSep 18 · 03:55K. Hrynenko2.0078100S. Abalmaz1.731111123LSep 18 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.8311114113S. Abalmaz1.83591171WSep 18 · 01:25V. Khamurda2.38911137122S. Abalmaz1.531151111143LSep 16 · 01:35T. Ponomarenko2.50119117113S. Abalmaz1.5091191192
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