TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142288
Played Sep 18Finished
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7118111012––––
Spartak Abalmaz
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:41 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKostiantyn Hrynenko above · Spartak Abalmaz below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 59 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 54.1%
59 points played in total.
H2H Kostiantyn Hrynenko 30–33 Spartak Abalmaz Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 30 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:41What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Abalmaz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-33 in 63
Abalmaz
Correct
gap of 3 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrynenko 1544 vs Abalmaz 1575
Abalmaz
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrynenko 40% vs Abalmaz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrynenko 50% vs Abalmaz 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrynenko +1 · Abalmaz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Abalmaz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abalmaz form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrynenko 2.00 / Abalmaz 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Abalmaz)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13142288
Hrynenko2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 141 of 330
Down 0–1, comes back26% 47 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 90
Abalmaz1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 158 of 268
Up 2–0, closes it96% 74 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it77% 114 of 148
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrynenko6wins
AwayAbalmaz4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHrynenko leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrynenko80%4 of 5
AwayAbalmaz60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrynenko5Abalmaz5n = 10split evenly
S2Hrynenko5Abalmaz5n = 10split evenly
S3Hrynenko6Abalmaz4n = 10Hrynenko took 6 of 10
S4Hrynenko4Abalmaz3n = 7Hrynenko took 4 of 7
S5Hrynenko3Abalmaz2n = 5Hrynenko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrynenkoAbalmazH − ABasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.240.8+1.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrynenkoAbalmazBasisWin rate · lifetime420 / 902 vs 422 / 83046.6%50.8%420 / 902 vs 422 / 830Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazHrynenko 2.00/Abalmaz 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Abalmaz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 8 · 14:55K. Hrynenko4181111113S. Abalmaz35119961
LJul 7 · 02:25K. Hrynenko531112121262S. Abalmaz512141410113
WJul 1 · 13:55K. Hrynenko531310118113S. Abalmaz47111271162
WJun 30 · 23:35K. Hrynenko341111123S. Abalmaz2578100
LJun 30 · 04:25K. Hrynenko2571080S. Abalmaz341112113
WJun 24 · 19:25K. Hrynenko52512911153S. Abalmaz481110113132
WJun 24 · 03:35K. Hrynenko331111113S. Abalmaz247980
LJun 23 · 02:55K. Hrynenko35871191S. Abalmaz4211119113
LJun 17 · 17:55K. Hrynenko5191371752S. Abalmaz5911111115113
WJun 17 · 02:25K. Hrynenko45113119113S. Abalmaz4391141182
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 18 · 01:55R. Gnoevoy1.57741141K. Hrynenko2.2511115113LSep 18 · 24:55K. Hrynenko2.20118871D. Derevynskyi1.6191111113WSep 17 · 23:55V. Khamurda1.807101261K. Hrynenko1.91111210113LSep 17 · 22:25K. Hrynenko1.83671181O. Naida1.8311118113LSep 15 · 04:05K. Hrynenko1.575570O. Melashenko2.251111113LSep 15 · 02:05D. Rehotun2.3811149113K. Hrynenko1.538121191WSep 15 · 24:05V. Kobets3.759850K. Hrynenko1.251111113WSep 14 · 23:05K. Hrynenko1.571111113S. Khandetskyi2.255920LSep 14 · 22:05H. Kulishov2.1010141113113K. Hrynenko1.67121291522WSep 13 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113M. Marchuk2.109830
S. Abalmaz10
LSep 18 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.8311114113S. Abalmaz1.83591171WSep 18 · 01:25V. Khamurda2.38911137122S. Abalmaz1.531151111143LSep 17 · 23:25O. Naida2.7581111113S. Abalmaz1.40118991WSep 17 · 21:25R. Gnoevoy2.10119121172S. Abalmaz1.67911145113LSep 16 · 03:35S. Abalmaz1.53811951V. Khamurda2.3811911113LSep 16 · 01:35T. Ponomarenko2.50119117113S. Abalmaz1.5091191192WSep 16 · 24:35S. Abalmaz1.671111113R. Gnoevoy2.108990WSep 15 · 23:35S. Skachenko1.8311891472S. Abalmaz1.838111112113LSep 15 · 22:05S. Abalmaz1.44891181O. Naida2.6311113113LSep 15 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.831381112113S. Abalmaz1.83111161492
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