TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Valerii Lukianevych vs Ruslan Serhyenko 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Valerii Lukianevych
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117711117311411
Ruslan Serhyenko
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRuslan Serhyenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Lukianevych above · Ruslan Serhyenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 83 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Ruslan Serhyenko at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Lukianevych 0–1 Ruslan Serhyenko Valerii Lukianevych has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:16What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Serhyenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lukianevych 1323 vs Serhyenko 1182
Lukianevych
Wrong
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lukianevych 40% vs Serhyenko 20%
Lukianevych
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lukianevych 60% vs Serhyenko 30%
Lukianevych
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lukianevych +2 · Serhyenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Serhyenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serhyenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLukianevych 2.10 / Serhyenko 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Serhyenko)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13173584
Lukianevych2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 31 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back23% 11 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Serhyenko1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 32 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it90% 18 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it78% 25 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLukianevych0wins
AwaySerhyenko1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderSerhyenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLukianevychSerhyenkoL − SBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match38.045.0−7.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLukianevychSerhyenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 403 vs 253 / 58150.1%43.6%202 / 403 vs 253 / 581Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SerhyenkoLukianevych 2.10/Serhyenko 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Serhyenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Serhyenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LJun 28 · 17:55V. Lukianevych3811115562R. Serhyenko45571111113
V. Lukianevych10
LSep 22 · 17:35V. Lukianevych2.109640V. Reva1.671111113WSep 22 · 15:05V. Lukianevych1.301111133M. Karelov3.4062110WSep 22 · 13:05V. Lukianevych1.5041111113H. Buianover2.50117541LSep 16 · 17:35V. Lukianevych2.006680V. Reva1.731111113LSep 16 · 16:35V. Lukianevych1.73712111272V. Leonov2.001114110113LSep 16 · 15:05V. Lukianevych1.50711591H. Buianover2.5011411113WSep 16 · 13:05V. Lukianevych1.331111113M. Karelov3.257720WSep 13 · 19:35M. Karelov3.2591161182V. Lukianevych1.33118118113WSep 13 · 18:05V. Lukianevych1.36111183V. Kruglyak3.008810LSep 13 · 16:05S. Paksiutov2.75613411113V. Lukianevych1.40111111662
R. Serhyenko10
LSep 22 · 14:35V. Reva2.00111014113R. Serhyenko1.735121261WSep 22 · 12:35A. Sydorenko3.758820R. Serhyenko1.251111113LSep 18 · 18:35R. Serhyenko2.501197161Y. Bielokon1.5081111183LSep 18 · 17:05R. Serhyenko3.009860D. Boltenkov1.361111113LSep 18 · 15:35R. Serhyenko2.25115951V. Chumak1.5791111113WSep 18 · 14:05R. Serhyenko2.75111011133I. Yelfimov1.406128111WSep 18 · 12:35R. Serhyenko2.381111113A. Azarov1.539680LSep 11 · 19:05R. Serhyenko2.201241031A. Azarov1.61101112113LSep 11 · 17:06I. Elfemov1.4481612113R. Serhyenko2.6311141091LSep 11 · 16:05R. Serhyenko1.91711591V. Sydorenko1.8011211113
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