TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Stepan Kalensky vs Jakub Nemecek Snr 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Stepan Kalensky
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111181012115119
Jakub Nemecek Snr
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:07 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeStepan Kalensky to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingStepan Kalensky above · Jakub Nemecek Snr below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Stepan Kalensky at 58.1%
96 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Kalensky 6–4 Jakub Nemecek Snr Jakub Nemecek Snr has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:07What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kalensky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Kalensky
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kalensky 1519 vs Snr 1484
Kalensky
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kalensky 60% vs Snr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kalensky 40% vs Snr 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kalensky +2 · Snr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kalensky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalensky 1.61 / Snr 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kalensky)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13173524
Kalensky1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite62% won 67 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it83% 40 of 48
Snr2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 20)
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 10 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back33% 4 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back20% 1 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKalensky6wins
AwaySnr4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKalensky leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKalensky75%3 of 4
AwaySnr50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kalensky4Snr6n = 10Snr took 6 of 10
S2Kalensky5Snr5n = 10split evenly
S3Kalensky4Snr6n = 10Snr took 6 of 10
S4Kalensky4Snr4n = 8split evenly
S5Kalensky3Snr0n = 3Kalensky took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKalenskySnrK − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.237.8+0.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenskySnrBasisWin rate · lifetime279 / 514 vs 61 / 14654.3%41.8%279 / 514 vs 61 / 146Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenskyKalensky 1.61/Snr 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Kalensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kalensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 21:13S. Kalensky3961111113J. Snr34118871
WSep 3 · 18:30S. Kalensky48117811113J. Snr3461111242
WSep 1 · 20:58S. Kalensky4271113113J. Snr351181151
WSep 1 · 18:30S. Kalensky46114119113J. Snr4081151152
LAug 26 · 18:00S. Kalensky2475120J. Snr361111143
WAug 22 · 05:45S. Kalensky45101112123J. Snr3812610101
LMar 12 · 18:30S. Kalensky29611661J. Snr4211911113
WMar 5 · 21:58S. Kalensky46111158113J. Snr4458111192
LMar 5 · 21:00S. Kalensky2899100J. Snr341111123
LFeb 19 · 20:30S. Kalensky35118881J. Snr4181111113
S. Kalensky10
LSep 22 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.445131131M. Cizek2.6311157113WSep 22 · 17:30S. Kalensky2.101111119113T. Bertho1.6713591182WSep 21 · 20:23F. Kubos1.80111180S. Kalensky1.911313113LSep 21 · 19:15S. Kalensky1.83711119102L. Stoces1.83118911123WSep 21 · 18:15S. Kalensky1.837111111113F. Kubos1.8311861382LSep 21 · 17:15S. Kalensky1.913660V. Herrmann1.801111113LSep 14 · 20:39J. Jnr1.361111143S. Kalensky3.0099120LSep 14 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.83611591R. Merkl1.8311811113LSep 14 · 18:30S. Kalensky2.6397110J. Jnr1.441111133LSep 14 · 17:30S. Kalensky2.631118151P. Rucky1.4481111173
J. Snr10
LSep 22 · 18:00M. Cizek1.73121111113J. Snr2.00145461WSep 20 · 12:45J. Snr1.7381116113O. Chadima2.001121461WSep 20 · 12:00F. Kubos1.6713591172J. Snr2.101111114113LSep 20 · 11:00J. Juppa1.671114113J. Snr2.1091290LSep 20 · 09:30O. Chadima2.00411118113J. Snr1.7311571172WSep 18 · 20:44J. Botka2.007811101J. Snr1.7311114123LSep 18 · 19:30J. Snr1.53111111572L. Hendrych2.38891311113WSep 18 · 18:30J. Snr1.7311511113J. Botka2.00811871LSep 18 · 17:30J. Snr1.7310480F. Kubos2.001211113WSep 13 · 16:23J. Snr2.20891111113P. Maly1.6111119672
Upcoming Matches
S. Kalensky
Nothing scheduled
J. Snr
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