TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Stepan Kalensky vs Marek Cizek 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Stepan Kalensky
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111315117311––
Marek Cizek
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:56 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeStepan Kalensky to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingStepan Kalensky above · Marek Cizek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 3-11
Point 76 set 4, 3-11 — our read held Stepan Kalensky at 66.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Kalensky 5–2 Marek Cizek Marek Cizek has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kalensky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Kalensky
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kalensky 1528 vs Cizek 1469
Kalensky
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kalensky 80% vs Cizek 60%
Kalensky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kalensky 40% vs Cizek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kalensky +3 · Cizek +1
Kalensky
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Kalensky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKalensky 1.44 / Cizek 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Kalensky)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13173704
Kalensky1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite62% won 67 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it83% 40 of 48
Cizek2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog31% won 22 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back21% 10 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKalensky5wins
AwayCizek2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderKalensky leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKalensky83.3%5 of 6
AwayCizekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kalensky6Cizek1n = 7Kalensky took 6 of 7
S2Kalensky6Cizek1n = 7Kalensky took 6 of 7
S3Kalensky1Cizek6n = 7Cizek took 6 of 7
S4Kalensky4Cizek2n = 6Kalensky took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricKalenskyCizekK − CBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match42.636.6+6.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKalenskyCizekBasisWin rate · lifetime280 / 515 vs 134 / 28754.4%46.7%280 / 515 vs 134 / 287Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenskyKalensky 1.44/Cizek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Kalensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 5 · 06:30S. Kalensky331111113M. Cizek188550
WSep 3 · 18:00S. Kalensky50131178113M. Cizek38113111122
WSep 1 · 18:00S. Kalensky4411119133M. Cizek358511111
WAug 7 · 20:59S. Kalensky3911116113M. Cizek32571191
LAug 7 · 19:00S. Kalensky4411121291M. Cizek4891414113
WAug 3 · 18:30S. Kalensky4111118113M. Cizek34781181
LApr 17 · 18:30S. Kalensky47911121142M. Cizek51119146113
S. Kalensky10
WSep 22 · 18:30S. Kalensky1.618111011113J. Snr2.2011812592WSep 22 · 17:30S. Kalensky2.101111119113T. Bertho1.6713591182WSep 21 · 20:23F. Kubos1.80111180S. Kalensky1.911313113LSep 21 · 19:15S. Kalensky1.83711119102L. Stoces1.83118911123WSep 21 · 18:15S. Kalensky1.837111111113F. Kubos1.8311861382LSep 21 · 17:15S. Kalensky1.913660V. Herrmann1.801111113LSep 14 · 20:39J. Jnr1.361111143S. Kalensky3.0099120LSep 14 · 19:30S. Kalensky1.83611591R. Merkl1.8311811113LSep 14 · 18:30S. Kalensky2.6397110J. Jnr1.441111133LSep 14 · 17:30S. Kalensky2.631118151P. Rucky1.4481111173
M. Cizek10
WSep 22 · 19:00M. Cizek1.6716119143T. Bertho2.1014711121WSep 22 · 18:00M. Cizek1.73121111113J. Snr2.00145461LSep 17 · 21:03Z. Kuksa1.83111410113M. Cizek1.832121271LSep 17 · 19:30M. Cizek2.2010911111P. Maly1.6112118133WSep 17 · 18:30M. Cizek2.20981111133Z. Kuksa1.61111179112WSep 17 · 17:30M. Cizek1.731111113T. Bertho2.008660LSep 5 · 08:29Z. Kuksa1.80111111113M. Cizek1.91713761WSep 5 · 07:30M. Cizek2.00712118113Z. Kuksa1.73111031182LSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek2.108550S. Kalensky1.671111113LSep 5 · 05:30M. Cizek1.83991291J. Juppa1.83111110113
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