TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dmytro Neborak vs Ivan Kozachuk 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Dmytro Neborak
Home
4.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8119111412811––
Ivan Kozachuk
Away
1.22
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:52 and never touched — 81.3% is still 81.3%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
81.3%
81.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Neborak above · Ivan Kozachuk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 84 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 81.3%
84 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Neborak 2–16 Ivan Kozachuk Dmytro Neborak has won 2 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:52What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Kozachuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-16 in 18
Kozachuk
Correct
gap of 14 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neborak 1695 vs Kozachuk 1784
Kozachuk
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neborak 60% vs Kozachuk 40%
Neborak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neborak 60% vs Kozachuk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neborak -1 · Kozachuk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Kozachuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozachuk form (40%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeborak 4.00 / Kozachuk 1.22
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Kozachuk)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13172931
Neborak4.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 113 of 323
Down 0–1, comes back15% 29 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back8% 10 of 120
Kozachuk1.22
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 111 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it95% 60 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it83% 83 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeborak1wins
AwayKozachuk9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKozachuk leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeborak33.3%1 of 3
AwayKozachuk100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neborak3Kozachuk7n = 10Kozachuk took 7 of 10
S2Neborak5Kozachuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Neborak3Kozachuk7n = 10Kozachuk took 7 of 10
S4Neborak3Kozachuk5n = 8Kozachuk took 5 of 8
S5Neborak0Kozachuk3n = 3Kozachuk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeborakKozachukN − KBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.542.6−6.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeborakKozachukBasisWin rate · lifetime308 / 841 vs 555 / 110536.6%50.2%308 / 841 vs 555 / 1105Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.836.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukNeborak 4.00/Kozachuk 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.9%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 21 · 16:05D. Neborak4999111192I. Kozachuk47111168113
LJul 21 · 10:25D. Neborak28613631I. Kozachuk44111111113
LJul 20 · 15:55D. Neborak29911451I. Kozachuk4211911113
LJul 17 · 10:50D. Neborak32116781I. Kozachuk4291111113
WJul 17 · 05:50D. Neborak341111123I. Kozachuk2266100
LJul 16 · 15:00D. Neborak196490I. Kozachuk331111113
LJul 16 · 14:00D. Neborak4888111472I. Kozachuk521111712113
LJul 7 · 08:55D. Neborak52121291182I. Kozachuk551410119113
LJul 6 · 13:55D. Neborak331157101I. Kozachuk4281111123
LDec 19 · 16:35D. Neborak4171113101I. Kozachuk4711915123
D. Neborak10
LSep 22 · 09:05D. Neborak3.757930D. Pesternikov1.251111113WSep 22 · 07:35D. Neborak3.0061111133S. Rak1.361148111WSep 22 · 06:05D. Neborak3.0011711113D. Shcherbak1.36511891LSep 22 · 04:35D. Neborak1.73124891I. Romaniak2.00101111113WSep 21 · 18:35D. Pesternikov1.17811781D. Neborak4.5011911113WSep 21 · 17:35I. Romaniak1.83142120D. Neborak1.831611143LSep 21 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.28111168113D. Neborak3.5099111192WSep 21 · 14:05S. Rak1.366711121D. Neborak3.0011115143LSep 21 · 12:05D. Shcherbak1.501111113D. Neborak2.507570WSep 18 · 11:20D. Neborak3.2511711113O. Bondarchuk1.33711991
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 22 · 09:35I. Kozachuk2.2511981372S. Rak1.579111111113WSep 22 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.611112113I. Romaniak2.2071040WSep 22 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.1011101011113D. Pesternikov1.6751212492LSep 22 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.803890D. Shcherbak1.911111113LSep 21 · 18:05D. Shcherbak2.001111113I. Kozachuk1.738890LSep 21 · 17:05I. Kozachuk2.3891191292S. Rak1.531151110113WSep 21 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.28111168113D. Neborak3.5099111192WSep 21 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.10911113113D. Pesternikov1.6711761182WSep 21 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.67111110113I. Romaniak2.10691251WSep 19 · 10:35O. Bindas1.5361360I. Kozachuk2.381115113
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