TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Denys Pesternikov
Home
1.17
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811119711811––
Dmytro Neborak
Away
4.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:03 and never touched — 83.8% is still 83.8%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
83.8%
83.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Dmytro Neborak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 83.8%
76 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 12–4 Dmytro Neborak Dmytro Neborak has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:03What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-4 in 16
Pesternikov
Wrong
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1840 vs Neborak 1662
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 179 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 40% vs Neborak 60%
Neborak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 60% vs Neborak 30%
Pesternikov
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov +2 · Neborak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Pesternikov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.17 / Neborak 4.50
Signal prob.84% / 16%
Edge (Pesternikov)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13166347
Pesternikov1.17
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 216 of 317
Up 2–0, closes it95% 122 of 129
Up 1–0, closes it84% 172 of 204
Neborak4.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 111 of 319
Down 0–1, comes back16% 29 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesternikov9wins
AwayNeborak1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov100%7 of 7
AwayNeborak33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov7Neborak3n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S2Pesternikov8Neborak2n = 10Pesternikov took 8 of 10
S3Pesternikov8Neborak2n = 10Pesternikov took 8 of 10
S4Pesternikov4Neborak1n = 5Pesternikov took 4 of 5
S5Pesternikov2Neborak1n = 3Pesternikov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesternikovNeborakP − NBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.230.0+9.2per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovNeborakBasisWin rate · lifetime590 / 1098 vs 305 / 83653.7%36.5%590 / 1098 vs 305 / 836Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.635.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.17/Neborak 4.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
83.8%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Neborak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 21 · 08:55D. Pesternikov331111113D. Neborak197840
LJul 20 · 18:25D. Pesternikov4251111782D. Neborak44116511113
WJul 19 · 20:30D. Pesternikov341111123D. Neborak2495100
WJul 14 · 05:35D. Pesternikov48711811113D. Neborak4411711782
WJul 13 · 17:05D. Pesternikov4291111113D. Neborak32117951
WJul 12 · 23:30D. Pesternikov4211911113D. Neborak29711471
WJul 6 · 14:55D. Pesternikov511110811113D. Neborak4891211882
WDec 20 · 08:35D. Pesternikov331111113D. Neborak237970
WDec 19 · 15:35D. Pesternikov341211113D. Neborak2610790
WOct 25 · 07:05D. Pesternikov331111113D. Neborak113440
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 21 · 16:35D. Shcherbak3.25115661D. Pesternikov1.3381111113WSep 21 · 15:35D. Pesternikov1.441111113I. Romaniak2.638890LSep 21 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.10911113113D. Pesternikov1.6711761182LSep 21 · 13:05D. Pesternikov1.44113561S. Rak2.6371111113LSep 18 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.171111991R. Haiseniuk4.5013811113WSep 18 · 24:30S. Rak2.634660D. Pesternikov1.441111113WSep 17 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.911311113O. Bindas1.8011990WSep 17 · 22:30I. Kozachuk1.91118881D. Pesternikov1.8071111113WSep 17 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.33111176153D. Shcherbak3.25541111132LSep 15 · 11:05D. Pesternikov1.28991181D. Shcherbak3.5011118113
D. Neborak10
WSep 21 · 17:35I. Romaniak1.83142120D. Neborak1.831611143LSep 21 · 16:05I. Kozachuk1.28111168113D. Neborak3.5099111192WSep 21 · 14:05S. Rak1.366711121D. Neborak3.0011115143LSep 21 · 12:05D. Shcherbak1.501111113D. Neborak2.507570WSep 18 · 11:20D. Neborak3.2511711113O. Bondarchuk1.33711991LSep 18 · 09:20O. Ivchuk1.831011119113D. Neborak1.8312791192LSep 18 · 07:20O. Pavlyuk1.8031111113D. Neborak1.91116931LSep 18 · 06:20O. Zhurba1.20111188113D. Neborak4.3346111182LSep 17 · 18:00D. Neborak4.50118991O. Zhurba1.1771111113LSep 17 · 16:30D. Neborak1.83117591O. Ivchuk1.8351111113
Upcoming Matches
D. Pesternikov
Nothing scheduled
D. Neborak
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