TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Ivan Kozachuk
Home
1.29
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119119611811119
Dmytro Neborak
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:15 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeIvan Kozachuk to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Kozachuk above · Dmytro Neborak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Ivan Kozachuk at 79.4%
96 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Kozachuk 16–2 Dmytro Neborak Dmytro Neborak has won 2 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:15What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Kozachuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-2 in 18
Kozachuk
Correct
gap of 14 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kozachuk 1830 vs Neborak 1650
Kozachuk
Correct
both rated, 180 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kozachuk 100% vs Neborak 40%
Kozachuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kozachuk 70% vs Neborak 20%
Kozachuk
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kozachuk +5 · Neborak +1
Kozachuk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Kozachuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neborak form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKozachuk 1.28 / Neborak 3.50
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Kozachuk)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13166403
Kozachuk1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 109 of 184
Up 2–0, closes it95% 58 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it83% 81 of 98
Neborak3.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 111 of 319
Down 0–1, comes back16% 29 of 186
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKozachuk9wins
AwayNeborak1wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKozachuk leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKozachuk100%7 of 7
AwayNeborak33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kozachuk7Neborak3n = 10Kozachuk took 7 of 10
S2Kozachuk5Neborak5n = 10split evenly
S3Kozachuk7Neborak3n = 10Kozachuk took 7 of 10
S4Kozachuk5Neborak3n = 8Kozachuk took 5 of 8
S5Kozachuk3Neborak0n = 3Kozachuk took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKozachukNeborakK − NBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.636.5+6.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKozachukNeborakBasisWin rate · lifetime553 / 1099 vs 304 / 83550.3%36.4%553 / 1099 vs 304 / 835Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.535.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozachukKozachuk 1.28/Neborak 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Kozachuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kozachuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 16:05I. Kozachuk47111168113D. Neborak4999111192
WJul 21 · 10:25I. Kozachuk44111111113D. Neborak28613631
WJul 20 · 15:55I. Kozachuk4211911113D. Neborak29911451
WJul 17 · 10:50I. Kozachuk4291111113D. Neborak32116781
LJul 17 · 05:50I. Kozachuk2266100D. Neborak341111123
WJul 16 · 15:00I. Kozachuk331111113D. Neborak196490
WJul 16 · 14:00I. Kozachuk521111712113D. Neborak4888111472
WJul 7 · 08:55I. Kozachuk551410119113D. Neborak52121291182
WJul 6 · 13:55I. Kozachuk4281111123D. Neborak331157101
WDec 19 · 16:35I. Kozachuk4711915123D. Neborak4171113101
I. Kozachuk10
LSep 21 · 17:05I. Kozachuk2.3891191292S. Rak1.531151110113WSep 21 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.10911113113D. Pesternikov1.6711761182WSep 21 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.67111110113I. Romaniak2.10691251WSep 19 · 10:35O. Bindas1.5361360I. Kozachuk2.381115113WSep 19 · 09:35I. Kozachuk1.1481111113O. Hura5.00115941WSep 19 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7351111113D. Shcherbak2.00115391LSep 19 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.388760S. Rak1.531111113WSep 19 · 05:05I. Kozachuk1.3051112123R. Haiseniuk3.4011310101LSep 18 · 18:05O. Bindas1.504111173I. Kozachuk2.50119921LSep 18 · 17:05I. Kozachuk1.6171950Y. Kravets2.201121113
D. Neborak10
WSep 21 · 14:05S. Rak1.366711121D. Neborak3.0011115143LSep 21 · 12:05D. Shcherbak1.501111113D. Neborak2.507570WSep 18 · 11:20D. Neborak3.2511711113O. Bondarchuk1.33711991LSep 18 · 09:20O. Ivchuk1.831011119113D. Neborak1.8312791192LSep 18 · 07:20O. Pavlyuk1.8031111113D. Neborak1.91116931LSep 18 · 06:20O. Zhurba1.20111188113D. Neborak4.3346111182LSep 17 · 18:00D. Neborak4.50118991O. Zhurba1.1771111113LSep 17 · 16:30D. Neborak1.83117591O. Ivchuk1.8351111113LSep 17 · 15:00D. Neborak1.731212128122O. Pavlyuk2.0014101011143LSep 17 · 13:30D. Neborak3.25911591O. Bondarchuk1.3311711113
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