TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Denys Shcherbak
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118511611611––
Denys Pesternikov
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Denys Pesternikov below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 69 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 73.3%
69 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 31–64 Denys Pesternikov Denys Shcherbak has won 31 of their 95 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:38What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-64 in 95
Pesternikov
Correct
gap of 33 in 95, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1769 vs Pesternikov 1830
Pesternikov
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 80% vs Pesternikov 40%
Shcherbak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 80% vs Pesternikov 50%
Shcherbak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak +4 · Pesternikov +1
Shcherbak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Pesternikov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesternikov form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 3.25 / Pesternikov 1.33
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Pesternikov)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13166270
Shcherbak3.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog42% won 95 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back16% 21 of 135
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 89
Pesternikov1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 216 of 317
Up 2–0, closes it95% 122 of 129
Up 1–0, closes it84% 172 of 204
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak3wins
AwayPesternikov7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak100%3 of 3
AwayPesternikov100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S2Shcherbak2Pesternikov8n = 10Pesternikov took 8 of 10
S3Shcherbak4Pesternikov6n = 10Pesternikov took 6 of 10
S4Shcherbak3Pesternikov3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakPesternikovS − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.938.6−5.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakPesternikovBasisWin rate · lifetime343 / 663 vs 589 / 109751.7%53.7%343 / 663 vs 589 / 1097Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovShcherbak 3.25/Pesternikov 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.3%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 17 · 21:00D. Shcherbak44541111132D. Pesternikov50111176153
WSep 15 · 11:05D. Shcherbak4111118113D. Pesternikov37991181
WSep 14 · 18:35D. Shcherbak53129147113D. Pesternikov481011121142
LSep 13 · 21:00D. Shcherbak216780D. Pesternikov331111113
LSep 7 · 15:55D. Shcherbak30941161D. Pesternikov4111118113
LSep 6 · 21:15D. Shcherbak2310490D. Pesternikov341211113
LSep 3 · 23:30D. Shcherbak1910450D. Pesternikov341211113
WSep 1 · 06:25D. Shcherbak43111011113D. Pesternikov34812681
LAug 31 · 15:25D. Shcherbak34811781D. Pesternikov4211911113
LAug 25 · 07:55D. Shcherbak219840D. Pesternikov331111113
D. Shcherbak10
WSep 21 · 15:05D. Shcherbak2.201111123S. Rak1.6145100WSep 21 · 13:35D. Shcherbak1.739101111133I. Romaniak2.00111266112WSep 21 · 12:05D. Shcherbak1.501111113D. Neborak2.507570WSep 19 · 11:05S. Rak1.57711111032D. Shcherbak2.2511971293LSep 19 · 10:05R. Haiseniuk2.6391111113D. Shcherbak1.44118971LSep 19 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7351111113D. Shcherbak2.00115391WSep 19 · 06:35O. Hura2.63911681D. Shcherbak1.4411711113WSep 19 · 04:35O. Bindas1.3697100D. Shcherbak3.001111123WSep 18 · 19:05Y. Kravets2.5010890D. Shcherbak1.501211113WSep 18 · 17:35D. Shcherbak1.671111113O. Hura2.108780
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 21 · 15:35D. Pesternikov1.441111113I. Romaniak2.638890LSep 21 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.10911113113D. Pesternikov1.6711761182LSep 21 · 13:05D. Pesternikov1.44113561S. Rak2.6371111113LSep 18 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.171111991R. Haiseniuk4.5013811113WSep 18 · 24:30S. Rak2.634660D. Pesternikov1.441111113WSep 17 · 23:30D. Pesternikov1.911311113O. Bindas1.8011990WSep 17 · 22:30I. Kozachuk1.91118881D. Pesternikov1.8071111113WSep 17 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.33111176153D. Shcherbak3.25541111132LSep 15 · 11:05D. Pesternikov1.28991181D. Shcherbak3.5011118113LSep 15 · 09:05I. Romaniak3.001113113D. Pesternikov1.3661140
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