TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Denys Shcherbak
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141151210––––
Serhii Rak
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:02 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Rak to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDenys Shcherbak above · Serhii Rak below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 53 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Serhii Rak at 58.9%
53 points played in total.
H2H Denys Shcherbak 46–57 Serhii Rak Denys Shcherbak has won 46 of their 103 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:02What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Rak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
46-57 in 103
Rak
Wrong
gap of 11 in 103, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 1753 vs Rak 1802
Rak
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 60% vs Rak 40%
Shcherbak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 80% vs Rak 50%
Shcherbak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak +3 · Rak -1
Shcherbak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Rak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rak form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 2.20 / Rak 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Rak)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13166598
Shcherbak2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog42% won 95 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back16% 21 of 135
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 89
Rak1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 261 of 399
Up 2–0, closes it93% 131 of 141
Up 1–0, closes it82% 185 of 226
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak3wins
AwayRak7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRak leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbak75%3 of 4
AwayRak100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak4Rak6n = 10Rak took 6 of 10
S2Shcherbak2Rak8n = 10Rak took 8 of 10
S3Shcherbak3Rak7n = 10Rak took 7 of 10
S4Shcherbak2Rak4n = 6Rak took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakRakS − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.236.3−6.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakRakBasisWin rate · lifetime342 / 662 vs 518 / 93951.7%55.2%342 / 662 vs 518 / 939Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RakShcherbak 2.20/Rak 1.61
Miss
What we said
58.9%
Rak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Shcherbak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 17 · 23:00D. Shcherbak152580S. Rak331111113
LSep 15 · 06:35D. Shcherbak192980S. Rak331111113
LSep 14 · 14:05D. Shcherbak4151111952S. Rak43116411113
LSep 13 · 23:00D. Shcherbak225890S. Rak331111113
LSep 10 · 23:00D. Shcherbak331110481S. Rak4281211113
WSep 7 · 13:55D. Shcherbak4011711113S. Rak31811481
WSep 6 · 23:15D. Shcherbak511181110113S. Rak3981141242
LSep 3 · 21:30D. Shcherbak31811481S. Rak3811511113
LSep 1 · 04:55D. Shcherbak2011180S. Rak351311113
D. Shcherbak10
WSep 21 · 13:35D. Shcherbak1.739101111133I. Romaniak2.00111266112WSep 21 · 12:05D. Shcherbak1.501111113D. Neborak2.507570WSep 19 · 11:05S. Rak1.57711111032D. Shcherbak2.2511971293LSep 19 · 10:05R. Haiseniuk2.6391111113D. Shcherbak1.44118971LSep 19 · 08:35I. Kozachuk1.7351111113D. Shcherbak2.00115391WSep 19 · 06:35O. Hura2.63911681D. Shcherbak1.4411711113WSep 19 · 04:35O. Bindas1.3697100D. Shcherbak3.001111123WSep 18 · 19:05Y. Kravets2.5010890D. Shcherbak1.501211113WSep 18 · 17:35D. Shcherbak1.671111113O. Hura2.108780WSep 18 · 15:35R. Haiseniuk3.406830D. Shcherbak1.301111113
S. Rak10
LSep 21 · 14:05S. Rak1.366711121D. Neborak3.0011115143WSep 21 · 13:05D. Pesternikov1.44113561S. Rak2.6371111113LSep 19 · 11:05S. Rak1.57711111032D. Shcherbak2.2511971293LSep 19 · 09:05O. Bindas1.3611411113S. Rak3.00911871WSep 19 · 08:05S. Rak1.30111314173R. Haiseniuk3.4081512151WSep 19 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.388760S. Rak1.531111113WSep 19 · 05:35S. Rak1.251111113O. Hura3.756560LSep 18 · 02:00S. Rak1.531110161072I. Kozachuk2.388121412113LSep 18 · 24:30S. Rak2.634660D. Pesternikov1.441111113WSep 17 · 23:00S. Rak1.611111113D. Shcherbak2.202580
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