TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130734
Played Sep 15Finished
Ivan Romaniak
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161311114––––
Denys Pesternikov
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:20 and never touched — 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Romaniak above · Denys Pesternikov below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 56 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 68.1%
56 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Romaniak 32–41 Denys Pesternikov Ivan Romaniak has won 32 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:20What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Pesternikov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-41 in 73
Pesternikov
Wrong
gap of 9 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Romaniak 1727 vs Pesternikov 1875
Pesternikov
Wrong
both rated, 148 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Romaniak 60% vs Pesternikov 40%
Romaniak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Romaniak 50% vs Pesternikov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Romaniak +2 · Pesternikov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Pesternikov) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesternikov form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRomaniak 3.00 / Pesternikov 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Pesternikov)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13130734
Romaniak3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 115 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back27% 46 of 168
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 103
Pesternikov1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 218 of 319
Up 2–0, closes it95% 123 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it84% 176 of 209
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRomaniak4wins
AwayPesternikov6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPesternikov leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRomaniak66.7%2 of 3
AwayPesternikov71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Romaniak3Pesternikov7n = 10Pesternikov took 7 of 10
S2Romaniak2Pesternikov8n = 10Pesternikov took 8 of 10
S3Romaniak4Pesternikov6n = 10Pesternikov took 6 of 10
S4Romaniak2Pesternikov2n = 4split evenly
S5Romaniak3Pesternikov1n = 4Romaniak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricRomaniakPesternikovR − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.638.2−7.6per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRomaniakPesternikovBasisWin rate · lifetime246 / 539 vs 592 / 110945.6%53.4%246 / 539 vs 592 / 1109Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovRomaniak 3.00/Pesternikov 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
72.4%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Romaniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 08:55I. Romaniak43721211113D. Pesternikov49111110982
LSep 7 · 17:55I. Romaniak2271050D. Pesternikov341112113
LSep 6 · 23:45I. Romaniak2812790D. Pesternikov361411113
WSep 1 · 05:25I. Romaniak351211123D. Pesternikov28108100
LAug 31 · 18:25I. Romaniak185580D. Pesternikov331111113
LAug 27 · 21:30I. Romaniak4311119392D. Pesternikov48961111113
LAug 25 · 08:55I. Romaniak158430D. Pesternikov331111113
LAug 24 · 15:25I. Romaniak154920D. Pesternikov331111113
WAug 21 · 15:35I. Romaniak42531112113D. Pesternikov45111151082
WAug 20 · 22:30I. Romaniak45115117113D. Pesternikov4391191132
I. Romaniak10
WSep 15 · 07:35I. Romaniak2.631113911113S. Rak1.4491511562WSep 15 · 06:05I. Romaniak2.6311117143O. Bindas1.448511121LSep 15 · 04:35I. Romaniak2.006890D. Shcherbak1.731111113LSep 14 · 19:05S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635560WSep 14 · 17:35I. Romaniak2.001111113D. Shcherbak1.739880WSep 14 · 15:35D. Pesternikov1.3611791192I. Romaniak3.00711114113WSep 14 · 13:35O. Bindas1.449590I. Romaniak2.631111113LSep 14 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.671112143I. Romaniak2.10410120LSep 12 · 11:05I. Romaniak1.571211681R. Haiseniuk2.25101311113LSep 12 · 09:05V. Plishylo2.00781111113I. Romaniak1.7311111482
D. Pesternikov10
LSep 15 · 08:05D. Pesternikov1.80861111O. Bindas1.9111114113WSep 15 · 07:05I. Kozachuk2.101161141D. Pesternikov1.6751113113WSep 15 · 05:35D. Pesternikov1.501111113S. Rak2.508670LSep 14 · 18:35D. Pesternikov1.281011121142D. Shcherbak3.50129147113LSep 14 · 16:35O. Bindas1.91811811113D. Pesternikov1.8011711882LSep 14 · 15:35D. Pesternikov1.3611791192I. Romaniak3.00711114113WSep 14 · 14:35I. Kozachuk2.00611691D. Pesternikov1.7311611113WSep 14 · 13:05D. Pesternikov1.441111113S. Rak2.636510LSep 14 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.83671181O. Bindas1.8311115113LSep 14 · 24:30S. Rak2.50111711113D. Pesternikov1.5011611892
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