TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13130857
Played Sep 15Finished
Ivan Romaniak
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181157111412––
Oleh Bindas
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:03 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeOleh Bindas to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIvan Romaniak above · Oleh Bindas below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 79 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Oleh Bindas at 64.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Ivan Romaniak 15–25 Oleh Bindas Ivan Romaniak has won 15 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Bindas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-25 in 40
Bindas
Wrong
gap of 10 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Romaniak 1712 vs Bindas 1732
Bindas
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Romaniak 60% vs Bindas 40%
Romaniak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Romaniak 40% vs Bindas 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Romaniak -2 · Bindas -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Bindas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bindas form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRomaniak 2.63 / Bindas 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Bindas)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13130857
Romaniak2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 115 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back27% 46 of 168
Down 0–2, comes back11% 11 of 103
Bindas1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 138 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it96% 76 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it80% 106 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRomaniak4wins
AwayBindas6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBindas leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRomaniak75%3 of 4
AwayBindas83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Romaniak4Bindas6n = 10Bindas took 6 of 10
S2Romaniak4Bindas6n = 10Bindas took 6 of 10
S3Romaniak5Bindas5n = 10split evenly
S4Romaniak2Bindas4n = 6Bindas took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRomaniakBindasR − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.235.6−2.4per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRomaniakBindasBasisWin rate · lifetime245 / 538 vs 464 / 73345.5%63.3%245 / 538 vs 464 / 733Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BindasRomaniak 2.63/Bindas 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Bindas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Romaniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 15 · 06:05I. Romaniak4311117143O. Bindas368511121
WSep 14 · 13:35I. Romaniak331111113O. Bindas239590
LJul 4 · 09:05I. Romaniak391091191O. Bindas3912115113
LJul 3 · 17:35I. Romaniak35128781O. Bindas43101111113
WJun 30 · 08:05I. Romaniak331111113O. Bindas216960
LJun 29 · 12:05I. Romaniak169520O. Bindas331111113
LJun 27 · 11:05I. Romaniak351011681O. Bindas4012611113
LJun 23 · 07:55I. Romaniak31391181O. Bindas3911116113
LJun 22 · 12:25I. Romaniak155280O. Bindas331111113
WJun 16 · 05:05I. Romaniak521251113113O. Bindas49141161172
I. Romaniak10
LSep 15 · 04:35I. Romaniak2.006890D. Shcherbak1.731111113LSep 14 · 19:05S. Rak1.441111113I. Romaniak2.635560WSep 14 · 17:35I. Romaniak2.001111113D. Shcherbak1.739880WSep 14 · 15:35D. Pesternikov1.3611791192I. Romaniak3.00711114113WSep 14 · 13:35O. Bindas1.449590I. Romaniak2.631111113LSep 14 · 12:35I. Kozachuk1.671112143I. Romaniak2.10410120LSep 12 · 11:05I. Romaniak1.571211681R. Haiseniuk2.25101311113LSep 12 · 09:05V. Plishylo2.00781111113I. Romaniak1.7311111482LSep 12 · 08:05I. Romaniak1.836790R. Lazebnyi1.831111113WSep 12 · 07:05Y. Kravets2.251112881I. Romaniak1.5761411113
O. Bindas10
LSep 15 · 05:05I. Kozachuk2.501111113O. Bindas1.509880WSep 14 · 18:05O. Bindas1.4491111123I. Kozachuk2.631136101WSep 14 · 16:35O. Bindas1.91811811113D. Pesternikov1.8011711882LSep 14 · 15:05O. Bindas1.332480S. Rak3.251111113LSep 14 · 13:35O. Bindas1.449590I. Romaniak2.631111113LSep 14 · 12:05O. Bindas1.3311440D. Shcherbak3.251311113WSep 14 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.83671181O. Bindas1.8311115113LSep 14 · 01:30R. Lazebnyi2.25951111113O. Bindas1.5711114682LSep 14 · 24:00I. Kozachuk2.501111113O. Bindas1.509560WSep 13 · 22:00D. Shcherbak3.00114120O. Bindas1.361311143
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